Phys.org reports:

Many ecologists hypothesize that, as global warming accelerates, change in nature must speed up. They assume that as temperatures rise and climatic zones shift, species will face local extinction and colonize new habitats at an ever-increasing rate, leading to a rapid reshuffling of ecological communities. A new study by researchers at Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) and published in Nature Communications shows this is emphatically not the case.

The researchers analyzed a massive database of biodiversity surveys, spanning marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems over the last century. The evidence showed that not only had the “turnover” of species in local habitats not sped up, but instead, it had significantly slowed down.

Dr. Emmanuel Nwankwo, lead author of the study, explained, “Nature functions like a self-repairing engine, constantly swapping out old parts for new ones. But we found this engine is now grinding to a halt.”

The study focused on the period since the 1970s, a time marked by a documented acceleration in global surface temperatures and environmental shifts. The researchers compared species turnover rates—the speed at which species replace each other—before and after this climate acceleration.

Contrary to the expectation that external climate forces would drive faster change, the data revealed that turnover over 1–5-year periods tended to become slower. This slowdown was consistent across diverse environments such as terrestrial bird communities or the seabed. [Continue reading…]