The Wall Street Journal reports:

Ukraine’s military has wrestled Russia’s much-larger army almost to a halt in recent months, having gained a tactical and technological edge.

This summer will test whether it can turn that slender advantage into a strategic turning point.

Fast-improving Ukrainian drone capabilities are hurting the invaders’ logistics behind the battlefield, and pounding oil infrastructure and military targets deeper inside Russia.

“We are not only holding the line, but we are also increasing pressure,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in April. Russia’s monthly casualties now exceed its army recruitment, he said. “We are making every meter of Ukrainian land extremely costly for the enemy.”

In Russia, discontent is growing over a war that no longer feels far away as oil refineries burn and the authorities clamp down on the internet for fear of dissent. Russian authorities said they intercepted more than 600 drones on Sunday in one of Ukraine’s largest attacks of the war, which hit targets in the Moscow region and killed at least three people.

It is too soon to say that the biggest war in Europe since World War II has reached an inflection point, many analysts warn. Russia’s war is going badly—but not badly enough to force President Vladimir Putin’s hand. And he is so far showing no sign of giving up his ambition to subjugate Ukraine.

“Ukraine is certainly in a stronger position than many expected,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst and head of Gady Consulting. But war involves cycles of adaptation, and the question is whether Russia can find answers to Ukraine’s improvements, he said. “In this phase of the war, we can really only look a few weeks ahead with any confidence.” [Continue reading…]