Joshua Yaffa writes:

In recent months, the normally placid waters of Russian politics have been marked by the appearance of small but noticeable ripples—not yet indicators that Vladimir Putin’s hold on power is in immediate danger but that the war in Ukraine is beginning to meaningfully transform the country’s economy and politics. The current tensions began to appear around the start of the year, when the Kremlin banned or restricted most messaging apps, except for one that had been developed by the state. During the next three weeks, mobile internet was impeded or shut off in the center of Moscow. The crackdown—which came amid a shrinking economy, rising costs, tax increases, and Ukrainian drone strikes on the country’s energy sector—led to a rare outburst of public discontent and an equally uncommon acknowledgment of the dissatisfaction from Putin. Of the internet outages, he said, “It does happen, unfortunately,” but he made clear that Russia’s security considerations were paramount.

Last month, Victoria Bonya, a popular TV personality and influencer, posted an eighteen-minute video to social media critiquing the many ills of modern Russia, in which she said, addressing Putin, “The people are afraid of you, artists are afraid, governors are afraid.” She warned that Russians are “being squeezed into a coiled spring,” which, one day, “will shoot out.” (Tellingly, although Bonya touched on everything from environmental disasters to the internet blackout, she did not mention the war or criticize Putin directly.) The video, which has been viewed some thirty million times, became a topic of discussion on the floor of the Duma. Gennady Zyuganov, the head of Russia’s Communist Party—which is an opposition party in name only—warned of “inevitable” economic collapse and a looming repeat of 1917, the year of the Bolshevik Revolution. It’s time, he said, to “make long-overdue decisions.”

Earlier this month, the Kremlin announced that this year’s Victory Day parade, held every May 9th in Red Square to commemorate the Soviet victory in the Second World War, which is typically a show of Russian might, would be a modest, small-scale affair. The usual columns of tanks and missile launchers and marching soldiers will be absent—they present too inviting a target for Ukrainian drones. (Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, acknowledged the “terrorist threat.”) Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, called the parade’s downscaling a “pragmatic decision.” But, she went on, “It nonetheless serves as a reminder to everyone that, as concerns the war, Russia finds itself at an impasse, with no obvious plans or hopes for getting out.” [Continue reading…]