CNN reports:

The Trump administration is currently trapped between the specter of a global economic recession and a naval catastrophe.

As the conflict with Iran intensifies, the world’s energy arteries are constricting to a point of “nonlinearity,” where every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed doesn’t just double the economic pain — it multiplies it exponentially.

So, the Trump administration is working to resolve the oil crisis on several fronts: It’s scrambling to organize a complex military operation to restart the flow of oil tankers through the strait while determining ways to alleviate prices by taking action in the markets. It also launched a PR campaign to assure the public that any pain at the pump is likely to be short term.

Yet inside the Pentagon and the West Wing, the math is becoming grim. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, has surged past $100 a barrel. The lack of oil flowing through the global market has slowed production to a crawl and is rapidly approaching the tipping point where major producers shut it down altogether due to storage constraints.

Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE are shutting off wells as storage tanks overflow. Once these wells go dark, they cannot simply be flipped back on, creating a looming supply crater that would create a cascading effect on the global economy.

US ships are currently avoiding the more dangerous chokepoints in the strait while still supporting US operations in Iran. Taking on the escort mission would require putting naval vessels in harm’s way purely for the purpose of shielding oil ships with no obvious strategic advantage for the war itself.

The long-standing operational plan involves US destroyers positioning themselves to protect the tankers from Iranian threats, and Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) providing support. However, intelligence suggests Iran is playing a psychological game. It is unlikely to strike ships entering the Gulf; instead, it is expected to target them on the way out, when they are fully laden.

The “shock value” hierarchy is particularly chilling. Analysts believe Iran will prioritize Liquefied Natural Gas tankers first—vessels that could “explode like the Beirut bomb”—followed by oil tankers to maximize environmental and economic chaos.

Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, underscored Iran’s posture – and the risks that come with it – in a Monday social media post.

“It is unlikely that any security will be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz amid the fires of the war ignited by the United States and Israel in the region,” Larijani posted in X in response to a post highlighting French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments about planning for a defensive escort mission to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. [Continue reading…]