Trita Parsi tweets:

1. Tehran is not looking for a ceasefire and has rejected outreach from Trump. The reason is that they believe they committed a mistake by agreeing to the ceasefire in June – it only enabled the US and Israel to restock and remobilize to launch war again. If they agree to a ceasefire now, they will only be attacked again in a few months.

2. For a ceasefire to be acceptable, it appears difficult for Tehran to agree to it until the cost to the US has become much higher than it currently is. Otherwise, the US will restart the war at a later point, the calculation reads.

3. Accordingly, Iran has shifted its strategy. It is striking Israel, but very differently from the June war. There is a constant level of attack throughout the day rather than a salvo of 50 missiles at once. Damage will be less, but that isn’t a problem because Tehran has concluded that Israel’s pain tolerance is very high – as long as the US stays in the war. So the focus shifts to the US.

4. From the outset, and perhaps surprisingly, Iran has been targeting US bases in the region, including against friendly states. Tehran calculates that the war can only end durably if the cost for the US rises dramatically, including American casualties. After the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran says it has no red lines left and will go all out in seeking the destruction of these bases and high American casualties.

5. Iran understands that many in the American security establishment had been convinced that Iran’s past restraint reflected weakness and an inability or unwillingness to face the US in a direct war. Tehran is now doing everything it can to demonstrate the opposite – despite the massive cost it itself will pay. Ironically, the assassination of Khamenei facilitated this shift.

6. One aspect of this is that Iran has now also struck bases in Cyprus, which have been used for attacks against Iran. Iran is well aware that this is an attack on a EU state. But that seems to be the point. Tehran appears intent on not only expanding the war into Persian Gulf states but also into Europe. Note the attack on the French base in the UAE. For the war to be able to end, Europe too has to pay a cost, the reasoning appears to be.

7. There appears to be only limited concern about the internal situation. The announcement of Khamenei’s death opened a window for people to pour onto the streets and seek to overthrow the regime. Though expressions of joy were widespread, no real mobilization was seen. That window is now closing, as the theocratic system closes ranks and establishes new formal leadership.

Again: The question “How will this end?” should have been asked before this war was triggered. It wasn’t.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

The length of America’s military commitment to its confrontation with Iran depends on what the goals are. And they keep changing.

On Sunday alone, President Trump and his allies offered at least two separate objectives for the assault on Iran, muddying Washington’s intentions for ending a conflict that has engulfed the Middle East and killed three American service members.

Early Sunday morning, close Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) said reducing the nuclear and missile threat from Iran was the intention, not regime change. The White House later reiterated that point in a statement.

Elaborating in an interview with the Atlantic, Trump said he was open to discussions with Iran’s current leadership that could end the war if U.S. demands were met.

But hours later, Trump swung back to one of his original goals from the beginning of the air assault on Saturday. In a video, he urged Iranians to “take back your country” from the regime, vowing the U.S. will “be there to help.”

The timeframe for military action has also changed. On Saturday, he posted on social media that the assault will last a week or more. A day later, he told the Daily Mail the fighting has “always been a four-week process.”

The whiplash-inducing statements over the past two days come as the U.S. and Israel have carried out an extensive air campaign in Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate against regional bases where American and European troops are present, as well as Gulf countries.

And as Trump pointed out in his Sunday video, the longer U.S. forces are there, the greater the chance for more casualties. “That’s the way it is,” he said, “but we’ll do everything possible where that won’t be the case.”

Some analysts say that if the policy is confusing, it is because the White House appears to be improvising. [Continue reading…]