Adventure capitalism on the precipice: Climate denying grifters go into fusion

Adventure capitalism on the precipice: Climate denying grifters go into fusion

Announcing the planned merger of Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) and fusion power company, TAE Technologies, Michael B. Schwab (son of Charles Schwab, who just launched “Trump Accounts”), who is expected to be the chairman of the new company said:

With the infusion of TMTG’s significant capital, TAE is on the precipice of scaling its leading technology to usher in a new era of energy abundance. The world needs energy, and fusion is the clear answer.

The New York Times reports:

A Trump-sponsored business is once again betting on an industry that the president has championed, further entwining his personal fortunes in sectors that his administration is both supporting and overseeing.

This one is in the nuclear power sector. TAE Technologies, which is developing fusion energy, said on Thursday that it planned to merge with Trump Media & Technology Group. President Trump is the largest shareholder of the money-losing social media and crypto investing firm that bears his name, and he will remain a major investor in the combined company.

The deal, should it be completed, would put Mr. Trump in competition with other energy companies over which his administration holds financial and regulatory sway. Already, the president has sought to speed up safety reviews of new nuclear power plants and lower thresholds for acceptable radiation exposure.

“Having the president and his family have a large stake in a particular energy source is very problematic,” said Peter A. Bradford, who previously served on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the independent agency that oversees the industry. [Continue reading…]

E&E reports:

TAE is one of several fusion companies in a race to develop the world’s first fusion power plant, with several developers vowing to bring a generator online by the early 2030s. If they are successful, it could be revolutionary for the grid, which is increasingly under strain as electricity demand soars because of artificial intelligence. As of this fall, fusion investments have soared above $9.7 billion, a fivefold jump since 2021, according to the Fusion Industry Association.

Among the industry leaders are Commonwealth Fusion Energy Systems, which is also backed by Google, and Helion Energy, which is supported by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

Driving the enthusiasm in part are advances in supercomputing, magnets and a 2022 experiment at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory that demonstrated for the first time that a fusion reaction can produce more energy than is put into it by lasers — long a technical barrier.

“In more than 40 years in fusion research, I’ve never seen this level of interest,” said Mike Campbell, a fusion expert and professor at University of California, San Diego. “While much remains, the deal symbolizes the intense interest in commercializing the last new energy source humanity will ever need.”

But there are still many challenges for fusion, including that scientists have yet to perfect the infrastructure that can contain plasma created by fusing hydrogen isotopes to more than 100 million degrees Celsius. While the 2022 experiment demonstrated that a reaction can create more energy than lasers provided, that gain didn’t account for the energy needed to power the lasers in the first place. [My emphasis]

Critics say they are concerned the attention on fusion will detract from other technologies that can come online faster. Fusion also generates high-energy neutrons that can damage equipment and make it radioactive, creating a potential hazard for workers.

John Holdren, a research professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and the White House science adviser during the Obama administration, wrote in a 2024 paper that hype about fusion electricity is “dangerous” because it could set back the timetable for eventual success by frustrating investors, as well as drive a “false hope” of a silver bullet for climate change. [Continue reading…]

At NeutronBytes, Dan Yurman writes:

The fusion field faces daunting scientific and business risks. Fusion faces significant hurdles in achieving “net energy gain” (Q>1) on a commercial scale. If the combined firm fails to deliver a reactor by the 2026–2027 target, it could make it difficult for other fusion startups to raise funds and lead to regulatory crackdowns on these kinds of investments. If, on the other hand, the stock remains high, other private fusion competitors like Helion Energy or Commonwealth Fusion Systems may face pressure to go public.

Linking scientific R&D to a stock influenced by political news cycles may lead to high volatility and popularity contests over stock prices unrelated to business value. Donald Trump is the majority owner of TMTG. Questions have been raised regarding potential conflicts of interest if the U.S. Department of Energy awards grants to the company. [Continue reading…]

Rich Duprey at 24/7 Wall St writes:

TAE’s timeline for a utility-scale plant beginning next year appears highly ambitious, requiring not only technical breakthroughs but also extensive regulatory approvals from bodies like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Department of Energy.

Trump Media is seeking to leverage growing energy demands from artificial intelligence data centers, where fusion could theoretically provide vast power. However, combining a social media operation with cutting-edge fusion research represents a sharp divergence from core businesses for both entities. It reeks of opportunistic grandstanding by attempting to capitalize on the hot topic of AI’s energy demands, much like its previous venture into the crypto world.

Given fusion’s history of overpromising and delay — and the merger’s execution risks — the deal carries a high probability of complications, setbacks, and failure. Investors should avoid buying into the hype. If TAE and Trump Media can actually succeed in the effort, there will be plenty of opportunity to buy in afterward. [Continue reading…]

The New York Times, November 15, 2024:

“It’s kind of the Wild West right now,” said Richard Magee, vice president of physics research at the fusion company TAE Technologies, as he showed off the firm’s bus-size test reactor in Southern California. “It’s going to be really interesting to see who’s still standing in 10 years.”

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