CNN reports:

President Donald Trump has said he believes Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s days are numbered, and that land strikes inside Venezuela are possible.

Experts say that the US doesn’t currently have the military assets in place to launch a largescale operation to remove Maduro from power, though Trump has approved covert action within Venezuela, CNN has reported.

But if Trump did order strikes inside Venezuela aimed at ousting Maduro, he could face serious challenges with fractured opposition elements and a military poised for insurgency, according to experts, as well as political backlash at home for a president who promised to avoid costly entanglements overseas.

CNN reported that Trump received a briefing earlier this week to review updated options for military action inside Venezuela, a concept the White House has been weighing. The administration had not made a decision on whether to launch strikes, CNN reported, though the US military has moved more than a dozen warships and 15,000 troops into the region as part of what the Pentagon branded Operation Southern Spear in an announcement Thursday.

The concentration of military assets and threats of further attacks beyond the ongoing drug boat campaign have served to increase pressure on Maduro, with administration officials saying he needs to leave office while arguing that he’s closely tied to the Tren de Aragua gang and leading drug trafficking efforts.

But if Maduro does flee Venezuela or is killed out in a targeted strike, experts worry about a military takeover of the country or the boosting of another dictator similar to Maduro.

There are other members of the Venezuelan Chavismo, the leftist political ideology of former Cuban leader Hugo Chavez that Maduro has championed, who could take the reins and subject the country to even harsher rule, experts and former officials said.

“Maduro has said something to the effect of, ‘You want to get rid of me? You think things will get better?’ It is something to consider because Maduro is a moderate inside the Chavismo, and someone else could usurp power instead of the opposition with the backing of the military,” said Juan Gonzalez, a resident fellow at the Georgetown Americas Institute who was a former Biden administration official focused on the region.

Another possibility would be a military takeover.

“If the military is still cohesive, and I don’t think we see any evidence it is not, they will not collapse because there is a challenge to or an ouster of Maduro,” said John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser in his first term. “They will follow their discipline, assert military control, and suppress anyone who goes into the streets.” [Continue reading…]