Attention to the Unseen

Jason Sattler writes: Everyone has finally picked up the pattern. When the stock market is open, Donald Trump is a peacemaker — Mr. Art of the Deal. Then the closing bell rings and the monster awakes. He becomes the sort of bloodthirsty beast who nods along to Pete Hegseth quoting Pulp Fiction as if it’s the Bible. And the march to global war continues. The rally that followed his latest peace headfake made real people real money. The peace was…

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Javier Blas writes: Over the past decade, China has built the world’s largest oil emergency stockpile — a multi-layered cache of strategic and commercial reserves with more than a billion barrels. Washington probably hopes that Beijing will convince Iran to soften its demands at the negotiating table, as it has done previously: In 2023, it brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. But most of the leverage Beijing had over Tehran rested on the money it was paying for…

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The Guardian reports: A further escalation in the Iran war could trigger a global recession, spiralling inflation and a sharp backlash in financial markets, the International Monetary Fund has warned. Against an increasingly volatile backdrop, the Washington-based fund said the economic damage from the Middle East conflict was steadily rising as it cut its growth forecasts for 2026 based on the impact from the war so far. In its half-yearly update, the IMF said the UK would suffer the sharpest…

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Politico reports: American forces began their blockade of Iranian ports on Monday, even as allies scrambled to understand how it will work — and how the Trump administration will avoid sparking new showdowns with the move. More than a dozen U.S. warships in the region are available to take part, according to one U.S. official, including the USS Tripoli, which has an embarked Marine unit aboard trained to interdict and board ships. Additional details remain scarce — including how long…

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Reuters reports: U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the price of oil and gasoline may remain high through November’s midterm elections, ​a rare acknowledgement of the potential political fallout from his decision to attack Iran six weeks ago. “It could be, or the same, or maybe a little ‌bit higher, but it should be around the same,” Trump, who is in Miami for the weekend, told Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures With Maria Bartiromo” when asked whether the…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: In just six weeks, the Iran War has shattered a system of global trade that has enriched people and nations for more than a century: the freedom to sail the open seas. The Strait of Hormuz long functioned as an artery for the world’s maritime economy. But that 30-mile-wide waterway is now a monument to a new global disorder. As some 20,000 sailors effectively held hostage at sea digested President Trump’s cease-fire announcement this week—contingent…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: Iran told mediators it would limit the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz to around a dozen a day and charge tolls under the cease-fire struck by President Trump, showing Tehran plans to tighten its grip on the world’s most important energy-shipping lane. Ships that pass will have to coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the powerful paramilitary group that has been labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the European…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: The Iranian government hailed the cease-fire with the U.S. by posting images on social media of President Trump waving the white flag and collapsing on his knees in defeat. America’s allies and partners in the Middle East fear that Tehran may have a point—and that they will end up paying the price for a war in which the overwhelming military might of the U.S. and Israel failed to secure political gains. Subjected to thousands of…

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Robert A. Pape writes: In recent years, the conventional geopolitical wisdom has been that the world order was moving toward three centers of power: the United States, China and Russia. That view assumed that power derived primarily from economic scale and military capability. That assumption no longer holds. A fourth center of global power is quickly emerging — Iran — that does not rival those three nations economically or militarily. Instead, its newfound power derives from its control over the…

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Ryan Grim reports: Gulf sovereign wealth funds are undertaking a sweeping review of American investments, driven by a combination of commercial necessity and political recalibration driven by the Iran war, according to sources familiar with deliberations around the high-level financing deals. In particular, the planned merger between Paramount Skydance and Warner Brothers Discovery, made possible as a result of Gulf financing, is getting a new look. A postponed meeting of the board of the Qatar Investment Authority will reconvene within…

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The Guardian reports: The world has become well versed in the importance of the strait of Hormuz to the world’s energy flows, but attention is increasingly turning to its vital role in another market – the fertiliser on which harvests depend. A third of the global trade in raw materials for fertiliser passes through the maritime choke point, which is also the route for 20% of shipments of natural gas, which is required to make it. The waterway’s near-total shipping…

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