Attention to the Unseen

Scott Anderson writes: America’s war with Iran has entered a calmer phase: diplomatic posturing, on-and-off-again negotiations and endless wrangling of a settlement. This, of course, is far preferable to the annihilation of Iranian civilization that President Trump was threatening just a few weeks ago. But it raises the question of just what has spurred this turnabout. The answer is rather straightforward. The American and Israeli bombing of Iran failed to provoke either a popular uprising against the regime in Tehran…

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The New York Times reports: Shipping companies said on Monday that President Trump’s offer to provide them safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz fell short of the sort of arrangements that would persuade them to make the trip. Mr. Trump said on Sunday that the United States would “guide” commercial vessels through the strait, which Iran has effectively closed since the war in the Persian Gulf started two months ago. But the president provided few details on how the…

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Eli Saslow writes: Their farm was called Butter Ridge, 326 acres of pastoral valleys and rolling hillsides just south of the New York State border. From his house at the top of the ridge, Brad’s father, Brian, could turn in every direction and see land that his family had once farmed. His grandfather Ivan Watson had run a large dairy operation just to the west, near the Susquehanna River. Ivan’s nine children had all gone on to become dairy farmers,…

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The New York Times reports: Iran’s supreme leader issued a rare statement on Thursday saying that the United States had no place in the future of the Persian Gulf region and making clear that his country planned to manage the strategic Strait of Hormuz waterway going forward. In the defiant message, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei also vowed that Iran would retain its nuclear capabilities. The lengthy statement from the Iranian leader, who has not been seen in public since he was…

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Al Jazeera reports: Pakistan has opened six overland transit routes for goods destined for Iran, formalising a road corridor through its territory as thousands of containers remain stranded at Karachi port because of the United States blockade of Iranian ports and ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Ministry of Commerce issued the Transit of Goods through Territory of Pakistan Order 2026 on April 25, bringing it into immediate effect. The order allows goods originating from third…

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CNN reports: At its linguistic core, the two-word phrase “demand destruction” feels severe, harsh, maybe even violent. In practice, that’s not far off: It means that the magnitude of a price shock can be so large, so persistent and so painful that spending behaviors shift – sometimes to the point where they permanently alter the course, the structure and the stability of a sector or an entire economy. Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency warned that in the wake…

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Politico reports: Energy experts say another oil price spike is coming — and it may be made worse by the president’s social media posts. President Donald Trump has repeatedly spurred temporary dips in oil prices by claiming on Truth Social that the Iran war is near an end and that U.S. oil production would ensure sky high gas prices would soon retreat. The jawboning has mostly worked. Even as the global price of oil has crept up over $100 per…

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The Guardian reports: The Middle East oil and gas crunch will impose as much as a trillion dollars of additional costs on the global economy while petroleum companies rake in spectacular profits from elevated fuel prices, analysis has revealed. The uneven distribution of risk and reward comes amid rising concern that the US-Israeli attack on Iran is worsening inequality, poverty and hunger across a world that has become dangerously dependent on fossil fuels. Even if the strait of Hormuz swiftly…

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Patrick Wintour writes: The United Arab Emirates’ decision to walk out of Opec is a political as much as business decision, and will reignite the simmering rows between the UAE and Saudi Arabia – which had been covered up by their shared anger with Iran over its attacks on the Gulf states since the start of the US-Israel war on Tehran. In the short term, leaving the oil producing cartel it joined in 1967 gives the UAE the freedom to…

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The New York Times reports: The fallout from two months of war in Iran is shuttering textile mills in India and Bangladesh, grounding airplanes in Ireland, Poland and Germany, and prompting energy rationing in Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand. The only country, it seems, that has been relatively spared from the economic chaos is the one that started the war: the United States. While warning signs of a recession are flashing across countries in Asia and Europe, the United States…

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Bloomberg reports: The Strait of Hormuz oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich world borrows from its stocks and pays up to secure supply. Traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment is coming. The longer the vital oil channel doesn’t reopen, traders say, the more consumption is going to have to recalibrate lower to align with supply that’s dropped at least 10%. And for that to happen, people will have buy less, either through…

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The Street reports: There’s a phrase that doesn’t come up often in defense contractor earnings calls: “golden opportunity.” It’s the kind of language that gets people’s attention. Lockheed Martin (LMT) CEO Jim Taiclet used it anyway. Speaking to investors on the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings call Thursday, April 23, Taiclet did not attempt to be subtle about what the current political environment means for the world’s largest defense contractor. With the Iran war driving Pentagon spending, a Trump administration that…

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