Attention to the Unseen

Patrick Wintour writes: The price of oil is the key metric for Iran’s success, along with its remaining supply of missile launchers. As a result, 95% of traffic through the strait of Hormuz remains blocked, depriving the markets of 10-13m barrels of oil each day. Such is Iran’s stranglehold even Trump describes Iran allowing ships through as a “present” to the US. Trump admits he is surprised the price of oil is not higher. Jason Bordoff, the founding director at…

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Politico reports: President Donald Trump is counting on money from the Gulf Arab States to power his economic golden age. But as the war with Iran nears its fifth week and the regional economy enters a free fall, hundreds of billions of dollars that Middle Eastern governments have pledged for U.S. projects are under threat. That has the Trump administration concerned that Gulf leaders may not be able to fulfill promises to invest heavily in the U.S., according to three…

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Soran Mansournia writes: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) does not need aircraft carriers, command of the sea or even a total blockade to threaten the global energy supply. In the Strait of Hormuz, it relies on something older, cheaper and, in some ways, more effective: the weaponization of geography. The corps does not need to destroy fleets or physically block every vessel to produce systemic disruption. It only needs to raise the risk of transit high enough that normal…

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Eduardo Porter writes: To shield ordinary Indians from the war in Iran, the government in Delhi redirected supplies of liquefied gas to Indian families, for which it is the main cooking fuel, limiting supplies to the plastics industry. The Nepalese government rationed gas and the Philippines trimmed the government workweek to four days. Bangladesh closed universities and rationed fuel. They have been hardest hit by Iran’s closure of the strait of Hormuz. Economies in Asia import over a third of…

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Politico reports: Global energy leaders have been jolted by the enormity of what the U.S.-Israel war with Iran means for their business — and they’re not liking what they’re seeing. It’s the second time in four years that top White House officials have taken the stage at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference to plead with producers to ramp up their drilling to cover supply disruptions from war-driven oil and natural gas price shocks. But unlike the coordinated international response…

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The New York Times reports: Western companies that pump and process oil and natural gas are among the biggest beneficiaries of the war with Iran, which has snarled production and shipping of fuels in the Persian Gulf. But even as many of them reap the rewards of much more expensive energy, executives are worried that what comes next could be bad for business. Should the war end — a possibility made real when President Trump said on Monday that the…

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Richard Bookstaber writes: At the start of the 2008 financial crisis, I was at a hedge fund. By its end, I was at the U.S. Treasury. At both, I worked with people only a few years out of college. The drama of 2008 was all they knew about financial markets. “Remember what’s happening,” I told them. “You’ll never see anything like this again.” Now I’m not so sure. Maybe they’ll see worse. We have returned to a period of risk,…

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Wired reports: On Thursday, Israel launched a series of strikes on various oil and gas facilities in the region, most notably the South Pars gas field, the world’s biggest natural gas field, which is jointly controlled by Iran and Qatar. Iran retaliated with counterstrikes, including on the world’s largest oil export facility in Qatar. Oil prices temporarily shot up to nearly $120 a barrel. These strikes appear to have damaged infrastructure that’s crucial to the world’s fossil fuel supply. Qatar…

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Reuters reports: Iranian attacks ‌have knocked out 17% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy’s CEO and state minister for energy affairs told Reuters on Thursday. Saad al-Kaabi said two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in ​the unprecedented strikes. The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tons per year of LNG for three…

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The Washington Post reports: As the United States wages war with no clear endgame, large swaths of the globe are suffering worse than Americans from the economic fallout, weathering gasoline shortages, falling currencies and more severe energy shocks. Iran’s retaliatory attacks have largely blocked the Strait of Hormuz, turning the transit point for one-fifth of the world’s crude into a trial by fire for cargo ships and sending oil prices soaring. That is triggering hikes at the pump — on…

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Axios reports: The Israeli Air Force struck a natural gas processing facility in southwestern Iran, two senior Israeli officials said. Why it matters: This is the first time Israel has struck natural gas facilities in Iran, which are key to Iran’s economy. The Israeli officials said the strike was coordinated with and approved by the Trump administration. A U.S. Defense official confirmed that. The semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that several facilities in the South Pars gas field near Bushehr were targeted. According to the report, emergency teams…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: Before the U.S. went to war, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told President Trump that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. Caine said in several briefings that U.S. officials had long believed Iran would deploy mines, drones and missiles to close the world’s most vital shipping lane, according to people with knowledge of the discussions. Trump acknowledged the risk, these people said, but…

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A commentator at bne IntelliNews writes: There is an old saying, attributed to the British Foreign Office in colonial days: “Keep the Persians hungry, and the Arabs fat.” Washington appears to have taken that advice to heart. The trouble is, when the hungry finally have nothing left to lose, it is the fat who pay the price. There is something darkly rational about Iran’s approach to this war. The Islamic Republic entered the conflict already ruined. Inflation was running above…

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