Gregory Brew writes:

Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, markets will remain on edge, waiting to see if Iran closes it once more. Oil coming out of the Gulf will be viewed as more risky — and likely more expensive as a result. Countries will almost certainly rethink their energy security plans and shift their economies away from dependence on imports, including of oil and natural gas.

This could prove to have the most profound consequences for the United States. Under President Trump, America has seemingly embraced its status as a petrostate, dropping incentives and programs to encourage the growth of renewable sources of energy like wind and solar. Right now, there’s a market for our oil and gas, and for the short term that won’t change, since uncertainty over the Gulf makes the United States a more attractive source of supply.

But in the medium to long term, this crisis will create greater uncertainty over the stability of these energy sources. More countries will pursue alternatives, including clean energy technologies where China has a decisive edge. The United States could see its export market diminish as demand for oil and gas slows, threatening a trillion-dollar domestic industry and the thousands of jobs it provides. American consumers could also be stuck with polluting fuels prone to price spikes while the rest of the world moves on. [Continue reading…]