Patrick Wintour writes:

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to walk out of Opec is a political as much as business decision, and will reignite the simmering rows between the UAE and Saudi Arabia – which had been covered up by their shared anger with Iran over its attacks on the Gulf states since the start of the US-Israel war on Tehran.

In the short term, leaving the oil producing cartel it joined in 1967 gives the UAE the freedom to respond quickly to a long-term prospect of constrained supplies, and to maximise profit. But it is a decision the UAE has considered before, as UAE and Saudi tensions over production quotas have been longstanding.

But the timing and unilateral nature of the UAE decision shows how other intra-Gulf disputes over how to respond to the Iran war could recast the Middle East.

The defection is, of course, a blow to Saudi Arabia’s prestige, since it positions the UAE as the Gulf state closest to Donald Trump, a long-term critic of Opec, and weakens the Saudis’ ability to manage the price of oil.

The announcement, without any prior consultation, came as the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE, was meeting in an emergency session in Jeddah, the first time it had done so since the Iran attacks.

Ever since the conflict with Iran started the UAE, the Gulf state politically closest to Israel and most hostile to Tehran, has been privately pushing Saudi Arabia and Qatar to launch joint counterattacks against Iran. The UAE was the Gulf state most heavily assaulted by Iran, fending off more than 2,200 drones and missiles, in part a function of its geographical proximity. [Continue reading…]