The Guardian reports:

Donald Trump’s likely casus belli for an attack on Iran – which would be the largest US intervention since the Iraq war – is fraught with contradictions, and his top advisers have been left to cover for him as the White House makes the case for intervention.

In his State of the Union address this week, Trump alleged that Iran posed a direct threat to the US and that the country was “working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America”. But that claim has not been backed up with evidence by the White House or the Pentagon, and US intelligence reports from just last year say that it would take Iran 10 years to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the US.

A public US defense intelligence agency assessment from 2025 says that Iran could use its space-launch vehicles to “develop a militarily-viable ICBM by 2035 should Tehran decide to pursue the capability”. But that threat to the US homeland, as laid out in the document, pales in comparison to the ones already presented by Russia and China, as well as other hostile states like North Korea.

And a separate annual threat assessment of the US intelligence community released by the office of the director of national intelligence in March did not address any direct military threat from Iran to the US homeland from its ballistic missiles programme at all.

In remarks to the press on Thursday, the US secretary of state and national security adviser, Marco Rubio, sought to square the circle by hedging Trump’s remarks without directly contradicting the president.

“They are trying to achieve intercontinental ballistic missiles,” he said, adding he wouldn’t speculate how long it would take. “For example, you’ve seen them try to launch satellites into space. You’ve seen them increasing the range of the missiles they have now, and clearly they are headed in the pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that could reach the continental US.” [Continue reading…]

The Guardian reports:

The US secretary of state Marco Rubio told ambassadors in the Middle East to stop making public comments that could inflame tensions and undermine Donald Trump’s pressure on Iran to relinquish its capacity to produce a nuclear weapon, according to a memo obtained by the Guardian.

“Given rising tensions in the region, Chiefs of Mission and embassies at addressee posts must refrain from public statements, interviews, or social media activity that could in any way inflame regional audiences, prejudice sensitive political issues, or complicate US relationships,” the cable said.

“Chiefs of Mission are expected to avoid all commentary on issues that could heighten tensions or create confusion about US policy. Discipline in public messaging is essential, especially at this time,” it added.

Inside the administration, the directive was widely interpreted as a pointed rebuke of the US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, following his recent appearance on former Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s podcast in which he said Israel had a biblical right to much of the land in the Middle East.

While the unclassified cable signed by Rubio did not single out Huckabee by name, its circulation to him and its timing on 23 February – coming two days after his remarks drew condemnation across the Middle East – appeared to leave little doubt about its intended target. [Continue reading…]