Bloomberg reports:

It’s been three years since OpenAI set off euphoria over artificial intelligence with the release of ChatGPT. And while the money is still pouring in, so are the doubts about whether the good times can last.

From a recent selloff in the shares of Nvidia Corp., to Oracle Corp.’s plunge after reporting mounting spending on AI, to souring sentiment around a network of companies exposed to OpenAI, signs of skepticism are increasing. Looking to 2026, the debate among investors is whether to rein in AI exposure ahead of a potential bubble popping or double down to capitalize on the game-changing technology.

“We’re in the phase of the cycle where the rubber meets the road,” said Jim Morrow, chief executive officer of Callodine Capital Management. “It’s been a good story, but we’re sort of anteing up at this point to see whether the returns on investment are going to be good.”

The queasiness about the AI trade involves its uses, the enormous cost of developing it, and whether consumers ultimately will pay for the services. Those answers will have major implications for the stock market’s future.

The S&P 500’s three-year, $30 trillion bull run has largely been driven by the world’s biggest tech companies like Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp., as well as firms benefiting from spending on AI infrastructure like chipmakers Nvidia and Broadcom Inc., and electricity providers such as Constellation Energy Corp. If they stop rising, the equities indexes will follow. [Continue reading…]