Ivan Krastev writes:

The Trumpian revolution has divided Europe. Unlike during earlier moments of friction, such as the United States’ 2003 invasion of Iraq, the split is not between pro- and anti-American countries. This time, it is between pro- and anti-Trump political camps. The most important change is that European perceptions of the U.S. political system are now starkly polarized. In a June survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations, supporters of far-right parties such as Germany’s AfD, Italy’s Brothers of Italy, Hungary’s Fidesz, Poland’s Law and Justice, and Spain’s Vox held a predominantly positive view of American politics, whereas mainstream voters in those countries held a mostly negative one. Never before had the council’s polling of Europeans shown a comparable polarization.

The key takeaway is that Europeans’ views of the United States are now defined by their views of Trump. Some traditional transatlanticists are growing apprehensive about the future, given that Trump’s European admirers may cease to support the United States when he is not in power or if his policies fail. By harnessing the illiberal vanguard of Europe’s east, the Trump administration has exacerbated the continent’s old east-west divide and dramatically increased the risk of fragmentation of the EU. And even if right-wing parties gain ascendancy across the region, it is far from clear that an illiberal Europe will be pro-American or that the dream of a more sovereign, less U.S.-dependent Europe is only held by the traditional parties of the center and left. Orban’s own evolving geopolitical vision suggests a more complicated reality. [Continue reading…]