Attention to the Unseen

The Observer reports: Secret discussions are under way between western allies over how to arm what they expect to be fierce Ukrainian resistance in the event of a Russian invasion that topples the Kyiv government. Boris Johnson laid bare the case for such a move in a dramatic speech to the Munich security conference where he stated it was in the collective self-interests of the west for any Russian invasion to “fail and be seen to fail”. He said that…

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Reuters reports: Russia’s strategic nuclear forces held exercises overseen by President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, and Washington accused Russian troops massed near Ukraine’s border of advancing and being “poised to strike”. With Western fears of war rising, foreign ministers from the G7 group of rich nations said they had seen no evidence Russia is reducing its military activity in the area and remained “gravely concerned” about the situation. After Kyiv and Moscow traded accusations over new shelling near the border,…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: China’s longstanding foreign-policy stance, set forth soon after the founding of Communist China by then-Premier Zhou Enlai in the “five principles of peaceful coexistence,” is to not endorse any country’s aggression or intervention in another’s affairs. That helps explain why China hasn’t recognized Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, or fully supported Moscow when it deployed forces to Kazakhstan early this year to quell unrest in the Central Asian nation. Beijing is aware that by so…

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Business Insider reports: Russia on Tuesday claimed it was withdrawing some troops from Ukraine’s border as it denies plans to attack the country, but the US and NATO said Russia appeared to be increasing its military presence there. They may worry that the situation could mirror Russia’s actions in 2008, when it said it was withdrawing troops and invaded eight days later. At the time, Russia said it sent soldiers to the Abkhazia region to fix a railroad, and then…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: Rising oil prices and fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine have created a dilemma for Saudi Arabia: Help the West by pumping more crude to tame the market, or stand by a five-year-old oil alliance that is helping Moscow at the expense of Washington. For now, the world’s largest crude exporter is sticking with Russia. President Biden has repeatedly called on Persian Gulf producers to pump more oil to reduce gasoline prices that, for…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: U.S. officials are warning that Russia could be about to attack Ukraine. For many citizens in this embattled country, the assault has already begun. Ukrainian officials say that Russia, which has positioned more than 100,000 troops around three sides of Ukraine, is stepping up a destabilization campaign involving cyberattacks, economic disruption and a new tactic: hundreds of fake bomb threats. Russian forces and their proxies already control portions of Ukraine and frequent skirmish with government…

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The New York Times reports: As the threat of a new Russian invasion of Ukraine grew, the European head of state with the longest and deepest experience dealing with Vladimir V. Putin fielded calls and doled out advice to President Emmanuel Macron of France and other world leaders desperate for insight into his difficult neighbor to the east. “‘What do you think about this about this, what about this, or this?’ That’s where I try to be helpful,” said Sauli…

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Anne Applebaum writes: Tragically, the Western leaders and diplomats who are right now trying to stave off a Russian invasion of Ukraine still think they live in a world where rules matter, where diplomatic protocol is useful, where polite speech is valued. All of them think that when they go to Russia, they are talking to people whose minds can be changed by argument or debate. They think the Russian elite cares about things like its “reputation.” It does not….

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The Wall Street Journal reports: One of Ukraine’s main airlines said Sunday it was forced to make an unscheduled landing in Moldova and suspended sales for flights this week after its insurers stopped covering aircraft in Ukrainian airspace due to an increased threat of a Russian military invasion. The announcement by Kyiv-based carrier SkyUp Airlines came a day after Dutch national flag carrier KLM said it had suspended its flights to Kyiv and wouldn’t operate flights in Ukrainian airspace. Separately,…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: President Biden warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin of “swift and severe costs” if Russia moves against Ukraine in a phone call Saturday, as the U.S. ordered most embassy staff out of the country and Moscow also began withdrawing its diplomatic presence there. “President Biden was clear that, if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on…

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Fred Kaplan writes: As Vladimir Putin steps up his military pressure on the Ukrainian border, there are signs that some members of Russia’s officer corps oppose his actions. The most eyebrow-raising of these dissents is an open letter by retired Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov posted on the website of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, which he chairs. In it, he rejects Putin’s claim that NATO poses a threat to Russia’s vital interests, warns that invading Ukraine “will forever make Russians and…

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Robin Wright writes: For decades, U.S. and Russian leaders have engaged in brinkmanship over territory, influence, and weapons. They’re at it again, this time in Ukraine, with stakes that could shape the balance of power, European unity, the Western alliance, and the success of Joe Biden’s Presidency. On Friday, the national-security adviser, Jake Sullivan, warned that Vladimir Putin could invade even before the Winter Olympics end, on February 20th—and urged all Americans to leave Ukraine immediately. Yet almost frantic diplomacy—as…

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The Guardian reports: In the often acrimonious back-and-forth between Russia and Ukraine in recent years, “fulfilling Minsk” has become something of a meaningless mantra: all sides agree to abide by the 2015 Minsk accords in public, but neither has any real intention of implementing the provisions of the agreement. Yet in his intensive peacemaking efforts this week, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, appears to be pinning his hopes on a renewed attempt to breathe life into the seven-year-old agreement. “The…

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