Thomas Nagorski writes:

It is often hard to know who is winning the war in Ukraine. The front lines scarcely budge. The air war brings regular Russian missile strikes—the most recent ones have hit Kyiv—and Ukrainian attacks that have battered Russian oil refineries and reached as far as Siberia. Ukrainian officials say the tide is turning their way; the Kremlin insists it will win a war of attrition.

In one significant way, Ukraine has already won. Some of the world’s wealthiest and most powerful nations—the United States included—are now turning to Ukraine for military assistance. Ukraine has built a defense sector at an astonishing speed and emerged as a global player in military innovation. “Ukraine needs NATO, but NATO needs Ukraine as much as the other way around,” remarked President Alexander Stubb of Finland, which joined NATO in 2023.

Beyond its implications for the war, this is a stunning achievement that will serve Ukraine well long after the guns fall silent. In President Donald Trump’s parlance, Ukraine now has a powerful “card” to play, a card it dealt itself.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky pleaded for foreign military aid from the West and exhorted his countrymen to build makeshift weapons for the resistance. For a time, Kyiv was grateful for pledges of American support, Bayraktar drones from Turkey, and whatever cheap weapons emerged from Ukrainian garages and warehouses.

Four and a half years later, American aid is drying up, Ukraine has replaced Bayraktar drones with more effective weapons of its own, and the country’s weapon designers have moved well beyond their low-tech garages. Ukraine’s defense technology sector is now a $7 billion industry, with many global customers and a projected annual production capacity estimated at $55 billion. [Continue reading…]