Attention to the Unseen

The Wall Street Journal reports: Israel set up a clandestine military outpost in the Iraqi desert to support its air campaign against Iran and launched airstrikes against Iraqi troops who almost discovered it early in the war, people familiar with the matter including U.S. officials said. Israel built the installation, which housed special forces and served as a logistical hub for the Israeli air force, just before the war started with the knowledge of the U.S., the people said. Search-and-rescue…

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Trita Parsi writes: The war in Ukraine shattered a core assumption about great-power dominance: that size and military strength are enough to impose one’s will. Ukraine showed otherwise. With the right strategy, geography, and resolve, a weaker state can survive and blunt – and in key respects even defeat – a much stronger adversary. The United States now faces an uncomfortable parallel. The war with Iran is exposing similar limits to American power. For decades, U.S. grand strategy has rested…

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The New York Times reports: About 352,000 Russian soldiers had died in the war against Ukraine through the end of 2025, according to a new estimate, underscoring the high cost that President Vladimir V. Putin is willing to bear to pursue his battlefield aims. The figure was released on Saturday — the day of Russia’s annual May 9 parade celebrating victory over Germany in World War II — by the exiled Russian media outlets Meduza and Mediazona. The number raises…

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Julian Borger writes: Benjamin Netanyahu interrupted an uncharacteristically long silence over the Iran conflict this week with a video commentary insisting he had “full coordination” with Donald Trump, with whom he spoke “almost daily”. The insistence that all was rosy in the US-Israeli relationship followed weeks of reports in the domestic press that Israel was no longer being consulted over the Iran conflict, and even less over Pakistani-brokered peace talks. Such is the scepticism over Netanyahu’s trustworthiness among the general…

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Jonathan Lemire writes: President Trump really, really wants the war with Iran to end. He has declared victory many times, including about three weeks ago, when Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz. He has repeatedly extended his cease-fire deadlines instead of following through on his (sometimes-apocalyptic) threats to resume hostilities. This week, his administration abruptly abandoned an effort to escort ships through the strait in part because of a fear that it could provoke violent, escalating confrontations. Trump is…

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The New York Times reports: A grinding war in Iran has so severely drained American firepower that Chinese analysts are openly questioning Washington’s ability to defend Taiwan. That shifting calculus threatens to undercut President Trump’s leverage in his high-stakes summit next week with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping. Since the war began in late February, the United States has burned through around half of its long-range stealth cruise missiles and fired off roughly 10 times the number of Tomahawk cruise…

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Joshua Yaffa writes: In recent months, the normally placid waters of Russian politics have been marked by the appearance of small but noticeable ripples—not yet indicators that Vladimir Putin’s hold on power is in immediate danger but that the war in Ukraine is beginning to meaningfully transform the country’s economy and politics. The current tensions began to appear around the start of the year, when the Kremlin banned or restricted most messaging apps, except for one that had been developed…

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The Washington Post reports: A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war. The analysis by the U.S. intelligence community, whose secret assessments on Iran have often been more sober than the administration’s…

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NBC News reports: President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after a key Gulf ally suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, according to two U.S. officials. Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom” on social media Sunday afternoon, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the…

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The Washington Post reports: Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported. The threat of air attacks rendered some…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: President Trump chose to look the other way after Iran launched three salvos of missiles and drones into the United Arab Emirates, one of America’s main Middle Eastern partners, despite a cease-fire he negotiated nearly a month ago. The likely conclusion in Tehran, Gulf governments fear, is that further escalation pays off because Trump is so intent on extricating himself from the war that he will ignore renewed Iranian attacks on America’s regional allies. European…

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