Firing the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner moves us into banana republic territory
Today, President Trump called into question the integrity of the Employment Situation report that the BLS released this morning. He accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately reporting false numbers to reflect poorly on this administration. This baseless, damaging claim undermines the valuable work and dedication of BLS staff who produce the reports each month. This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system.
The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show. The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference. The BLS uses the same proven, transparent, reliable process to produce estimates every month. Every month, BLS revises the prior two months’ employment estimates to reflect slower-arriving, more-accurate information.
This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers. U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science. [Continue reading…]
Dr. McEntarfer was a career civil servant who served for decades under different Presidents. She was elevated by Biden, rather than coming in as an outside political appointee with the Biden team. That made her more credible as a non-partisan actor. A widely respected economist, she was backed by four former BLS Commissioners when nominated, and was approved overwhelmingly by the Senate with 86 votes in favor (including then Senator JD Vance) and just eight against.
Trump is within his legal rights to fire her, but by firing a non-partisan figure because he does not like the data, he very much is encouraging her successor to manipulate those numbers for political purposes. After all, who will take the job knowing that they will lose it if the numbers are not acceptable to the President?
The only sliver of good news is that the new Acting Commissioner, Bill Wiatrowski, is a credible professional who has held this position before. But how long will he last under these conditions? [Continue reading…]
U.S. hiring is slowing sharply as President Donald Trump’s erratic and radical trade policies paralyze businesses and raise doubts about the outlook for the world’s largest economy.
U.S. employers added just 73,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, well short of the 115,000 expected.
Worse, revisions shaved a stunning 258,000 jobs off May and June payrolls. And the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% as Americans dropped out of the labor force and the ranks of the unemployed rose by 221,000.
“A notable deterioration in U.S. labor market conditions appears to be underway,’’ said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets. ”We have been forecasting this since the tariff and trade war erupted this spring and more restrictive immigration restrictions were put in place. Overall, this report highlights the risk of a harder landing for the labor market.’’
Economists have been warning that the rift with every U.S. trading partner will begin to appear this summer and the Friday jobs report appeared to sound the bell.
“We’re finally in the eye of the hurricane,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor. “After months of warning signs, the July jobs report confirms that the slowdown isn’t just approaching—it’s here.” [Continue reading…]