Trumpism’s succession problem
[I]t’s no longer absurdly premature to start talking about succession. And, for my money, there are three leading contenders.
Vice President JD Vance — seemingly the obvious successor — is clearly positioning himself as heir apparent to Trumpism 2.0: similar themes, better vocabulary, a little more polish and (crucially) a future.
Tucker Carlson now also seems to be testing out what it would look like to actually run for office. And Donald Trump Jr. is lurking around the perimeter; the assumption is that his name will carry him somewhere, though it’s not clear where (or even if) anyone would follow him.
For those hoping the MAGA spell would break post-Trump, the prospects are strikingly bleak. These three men all occupy somewhat similar turf — a figure like Nikki Haley will not be not on this list.
Trumpism will survive, albeit without Trump. But winning the internecine battle to lead this movement might be a Pyrrhic victory.
Trump’s coalition cannot be inherited any more than his celebrity status or charisma can. The coalition wasn’t built to outlive 2024. It is an unruly jumble of people with wildly incompatible worldviews, glued together by little more than shared grievance and a cult of personality.
It includes paleoconservative nationalists and neoconservative interventionists, Christian fundamentalists and manosphere libertines, fans of McDonald’s and crunchy health nuts. And it worked, somehow, in 2024 — but only for Trump.
This has always been the dirty secret of Trumpism: It’s not transferrable. You could see it in the 2018 midterms, when Republicans took a beating without Trump on the ballot. You saw it again in 2022, when a rogues’ gallery of Trump-endorsed candidates flopped spectacularly.
The Trump base doesn’t show up for the brand — it shows up for the man. [Continue reading…]