The New York Times reports:

Iran and Oman are closing in on an agreement to reopen shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian and American officials, but if the accord goes into effect it could come at a high price — ratifying Tehran’s control over what, before the war, was an open, international waterway.

As described by officials familiar with the emerging accord, vessels heading into the Persian Gulf will transit a channel controlled by Iran, and close to its coast. Ships leaving the Gulf will travel on a channel near Oman.

Iranian officials say that while there will be no tolls charged the agreement includes a “service fee” to cover the environmental impact of the shipping, security for the cargo ships and tankers, and staffing. Revenues would be divided equally between Iran and Oman, two Iranian officials said.

But a U.S. official familiar with the negotiations said on Monday that the Iranian account was “not accurate,” and said that any “temporary” routes established through the strait would not involve approvals or permissions by Iran, and would involve no tolls.

For President Trump, the deal, if it happened, could address his most urgent political problem allowing ships to flow again. For their part, Iranian officials said the strait would remain closed, despite any agreement, until the U.S. lifts its naval blockade against Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and both countries return to the 14-point plan laid out in the Islamabad memorandum of understanding.

The U.S. could ease the market pressure even further, some officials said, if it decided to issue exemptions on sanctions against Iran so it could legally sell and deliver oil.

But if, ultimately, Iran asserts continued control over the passageway, the opening might come with a geopolitical cost. Iranian officials say they are designing the accord to ratify their capacity to control the strait and therefore retain strategic leverage that they did not employ before the war. [Continue reading…]