Peter Dickinson writes:

For centuries, Russia’s colossal size has been widely regarded as the country’s greatest asset. From Charles XII of Sweden to Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler, a long line of would-be conquerors have invaded Russia only for their armies to swallowed up by the vastness of the country. Ukraine is now attempting to turn this military logic on its head with a strategic bombing campaign that aims to exploit Russia’s immensity and transform it from a key strength into a fatal weakness.

Kyiv’s current deep strike strategy reflects the changing technological possibilities of modern warfare. Russia’s sheer size once made it virtually impossible to conquer, but in an era where long-range precision weapons are increasingly accessible, the Putin regime is now discovering that this same attribute makes the country extremely difficult to defend.

Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukrainian policymakers have recognized the importance of bringing the war home to Russia. At the same time, they have been under no illusions regarding the deep reluctance of Ukraine’s allies to authorize strikes against targets inside the Russian Federation using Western weapons. This has left Kyiv with little choice but to prioritize the development of domestically produced long-range drones and missiles capable of penetrating deep into Russia.

During the first two years of the full-scale war, Ukraine’s long-range weapons program produced only modest results. While attacks were sporadically carried out, these early strikes were mostly symbolic in nature, with video footage of isolated explosions boosting Ukrainian morale without doing any real damage to the Kremlin war machine. More recently, however, Ukraine’s long-range strikes have become far bigger and more consequential.

The mounting impact of Ukraine’s strategic bombing campaign is due to an upgraded long-range arsenal that now contains a large number of drone models along with a growing quantity of domestically developed cruise missiles. In recent months, Kyiv has used this enhanced firepower to conduct large-scale attacks on Russian military production sites and energy infrastructure, including multiple targets located more than a thousand kilometers from the Ukrainian border. This extended range means that around a quarter of Russia’s entire landmass and more than 70 percent of the Russian population are now within reach, according to Bloomberg. [Continue reading…]