Are US boots on the ground inevitable in a war with Iran? With reports that over 2,000 Marines are being deployed, questions are growing over Washington’s strategy and whether Donald Trump has a clear plan. Could the US attempt something as bold as seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s critical oil hub?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Nate Swanson, former National Security Council Iran desk official, and investigative journalist Ronen Bergman to unpack the latest developments and what comes next.

Axios reports:

The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, four sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Why it matters: President Trump can’t end the war, at least on his terms, until he breaks Iran’s chokehold on shipping through the strait. In the meantime, global energy prices are surging.

• But an operation to take over Kharg Island, which sits 15 miles offshore and processes 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, could put U.S. troops more directly in the line of fire.
• Thus, such an operation would only be launched after the U.S. military further degrades Iran’s military capacity around the Strait of Hormuz. “We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations,” a source with knowledge of the White House thinking said.
• Such an operation, if approved, would also require more troops. Three different Marine units are on their way to the region. The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending even more troops soon, a U.S. official said.

What they’re saying: “He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that’s going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that’s going to happen. But that decision hasn’t been made,” a senior administration official told Axios. [Continue reading…]