Ellie Geranmayeh writes:

The US and Israel have jointly launched an unprecedented military campaign against Iran, in violation of international law. President Donald Trump’s announcement of the war leaves no doubt that his end-goal, at least for now, is regime change. He has left no off-ramps but complete surrender for Iran’s leadership. A cornered Iran is now fulfilling its threats to respond with widespread counter-strikes on targets across the Middle East. This is Trump’s war of choice. But that does not mean he controls how it ends.

This is the most existential moment for the Islamic Republic of Iran’s rulers since its foundation in 1979. It follows the mass nationwide protests last month that ended in the deaths of thousands at the hands of the regime. Iran’s security and ideological cadres are now prepared for a sustained war against the US and Israel. They view a maximum escalatory response as necessary for the survival of both the Islamic Republic of Iran and its network of armed groups across the region: Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq. These have vowed to go on the offensive, despite their evident weaknesses, for the same existential reasons.

Iran’s immediate and widespread counter-strikes show that Tehran maintains command-and-control capabilities, and is determined to fulfil its pledge to regionalise a war that America started. As the US and Israel have air superiority, Iran will also be keen to use its offensive assets before the ongoing bombing campaign depletes them. Tehran likely wants to rapidly increase the cost on the US and Israel—including through political pressure from Arab Gulf states now under fire—to force them to back down before they succeed in destabilising the regime.

As things stand, however, a quick end to the war looks unlikely. This could be the beginning of a new long conflict for the US in the Middle East, one that could itself prompt a deep and painful civil war within Iran. It could also provoke significant security, economic and migratory consequences for Europeans. Yet for the moment, they have been conspicuously timid in responding to the attacks. The joint statement by France, Germany and the UK did not even dare to specify which states conducted them. [Continue reading…]