The New York Times reports:

In early January, as Iran faced nationwide protests and the threat of strikes by the United States, the nation’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, turned to a trusted and loyal lieutenant to steer the country: Ali Larijani, the country’s top national security official.

Since then, Mr. Larijani, 67, a veteran politician, a former commander in the Revolutionary Guards Corps and the current head of the Supreme National Security Council, has effectively been running the country. His rise has sidelined President Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon turned politician, who has faced a challenging year in office and continues to say publicly that “I’m a doctor, not a politician,” and that no one should expect him to solve the multitude of problems in Iran.

This account of Mr. Larijani’s ascent and the decisions and deliberations of Iran’s leadership as the Trump administration threatens war is based on interviews with six senior Iranian officials, one of them affiliated with Ayatollah Khamenei’s office; three members of the Revolutionary Guards; two former Iranian diplomats; and reports from the Iranian news media. The officials and members of the Guards spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss internal government matters.

Mr. Larijani’s portfolio of responsibilities has grown steadily over the past few months. He was in charge of crushing, with lethal force, the recent protests demanding the end of Islamic rule. Currently, he is keeping a lid on dissent, liaising with powerful allies like Russia and regional actors like Qatar and Oman, and overseeing nuclear negotiations with Washington. He is also devising plans for managing Iran during a potential war with the United States as Washington amasses forces in the region.

“We are ready in our country,” Mr. Larijani said in an interview with Al Jazeera when he visited the Qatari capital, Doha, this month. “We are definitely more powerful than before. We have prepared in the past seven, eight months. We found our weaknesses and fixed them. We are not looking for war, and we won’t start the war. But if they force it on us, we will respond.”

Ayatollah Khamenei has instructed Mr. Larijani and a handful of other close political and military associates to ensure that the Islamic Republic survives not only American and Israeli bombs, but also any assassination attempts on its top leadership, including on Ayatollah Khamenei himself, according to the six senior officials and the Guards members. [Continue reading…]

The New York Times reports:

President Trump has told advisers that if diplomacy or any initial targeted U.S. attack does not lead Iran to give in to his demands that it give up its nuclear program, he will consider a much bigger attack in coming months intended to drive that country’s leaders from power, people briefed on internal administration deliberations said.

Negotiators from the United States and Iran are scheduled to meet in Geneva on Thursday for what appears to be last-ditch negotiations to avoid a military conflict. But Mr. Trump has been weighing options for U.S. action if the negotiations fail.

Though no final decisions have been made, advisers said, Mr. Trump has been leaning toward conducting an initial strike in coming days intended to demonstrate to Iran’s leaders that they must be willing to agree to give up the ability to make a nuclear weapon.

Targets under consideration range from the headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to the country’s nuclear sites to the ballistic missile program.

Should those steps fail to convince Tehran to meet his demands, Mr. Trump told advisers, he would leave open the possibility of a military assault later this year intended to help topple Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader.

There are doubts even inside the administration about whether that goal can be accomplished with airstrikes alone. And behind the scenes, a new proposal is being considered by both sides that could create an off-ramp to military conflict: a very limited nuclear enrichment program that Iran could carry out solely for purposes of medical research and treatments.

It is unclear whether either side would agree. But the last-minute proposal comes as two aircraft carrier groups and dozens of fighter jets, bombers and refueling aircraft are now massing within striking distance of Iran. [Continue reading…]