A new survey conducted by one of Joe Biden’s former pollsters shows the president’s support has cratered among Muslim and Arab Democrats in Michigan, a key demographic group that overwhelmingly backed Biden in the swing state in 2020.
The poll lends further credence to the warnings Arab and Muslim community leaders in Michigan and beyond have been issuing for weeks: that Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza could cost him a state that he won by just 150,000 votes in 2020 and is home to an estimated 240,000 Muslims.
The survey, shared first with NBC News, was conducted by Lake Research Partners, a respected Democratic pollster that did extensive work on Biden’s 2020 campaign and those of many other major Democratic candidates, like Hillary Clinton. It was commissioned by Detroit Action, a progressive advocacy group.
The survey reached 513 registered, likely Democratic voters in the state, including oversamples of Arab and Muslim Democrats, and of voters under the age of 30. It was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
The margin of error is more than twice as large among the oversampled subgroups, given their small sample sizes. But only a relative handful of Arab and Muslim Democrats surveyed, 16%, said they would vote for Biden if the election were held today. [Continue reading…]