The need for more diplomacy between Russia and the United States is screamingly obvious. But it should focus on preventing a catastrophic conflict between the two countries, rather than a fruitless effort to halt the Ukraine war.
The Ukraine conflict, for all its horror, simply isn’t ripe for a diplomatic settlement. Ukraine is advancing on the battlefield, and Russia, for all its nuclear saber-rattling, is in disarray. A defiant Ukraine wants to regain all its territory, while Russia refuses to withdraw. So, there’s no middle ground, for now.
When you have an insoluble problem, enlarge it. That’s a familiar management formula, and it has some validity here. The United States shouldn’t (and couldn’t) dictate a settlement to Kyiv; instead, it must maintain the flow of weapons, reliably and patiently. But it should find new channels to convey that the United States doesn’t seek Russia’s destruction and wants to avoid direct military conflict.
A shaken Russia seems weirdly eager to communicate these days, too, although it’s been sending a twisted and misleading message. The latest example was Thursday’s speech by President Vladimir Putin. He repeated his usual grievances with the West, but his other theme was that Russia wanted a version of dialogue.
“Sooner or later, both the new centers of a multipolar world order and the West will have to start an equal conversation about a common future,” Putin told an annual foreign-policy forum in Moscow. The Biden White House should forget the bizarre details of his view of reality: Take him seriously; answer his message.
An example of Russia’s recent communications binge — and a good U.S. response — was the barrage of allegations about an alleged Ukrainian plot to build a radiological “dirty bomb.” To most Western analysts, this looked like a bogus Kremlin pretext, perhaps to justify Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons. That assessment seems likely to me, too. But it’s also possible that Putin really believes it and thinks he has evidence.
The Kremlin pushed every messaging button it had. The Russian minister of defense called his U.S. counterpart, twice, and along with the British, French and Turkish defense ministers. The chief of Russia’s military staff delivered the same message to his Pentagon peer. Russia raised the issue with the U.N. Security Council. Putin himself repeated the charge.
What did the Biden administration do? Sensibly, while rejecting the allegations, it moved quickly last weekend to encourage an investigation by Rafael Grossi, the head of the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency. To facilitate Grossi’s travel to Ukraine, top White House and State Department officials called their Ukrainian counterparts. In 24 hours, the Biden administration found an international forum to defuse this crisis (at least momentarily) and address Russia’s loud complaint.
This model of crisis communication needs to be replicated in every area that could lead to — let’s just say it — World War III. I think that Putin is a liar and a bully, and I hope the Ukrainians keep hammering Russia on the battlefield. But the United States also has an abiding national interest in avoiding a direct war with Russia, as Biden has said repeatedly. [Continue reading…]