Attention to the Unseen

Anne Applebaum writes: Tragically, the Western leaders and diplomats who are right now trying to stave off a Russian invasion of Ukraine still think they live in a world where rules matter, where diplomatic protocol is useful, where polite speech is valued. All of them think that when they go to Russia, they are talking to people whose minds can be changed by argument or debate. They think the Russian elite cares about things like its “reputation.” It does not….

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The Wall Street Journal reports: One of Ukraine’s main airlines said Sunday it was forced to make an unscheduled landing in Moldova and suspended sales for flights this week after its insurers stopped covering aircraft in Ukrainian airspace due to an increased threat of a Russian military invasion. The announcement by Kyiv-based carrier SkyUp Airlines came a day after Dutch national flag carrier KLM said it had suspended its flights to Kyiv and wouldn’t operate flights in Ukrainian airspace. Separately,…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: President Biden warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin of “swift and severe costs” if Russia moves against Ukraine in a phone call Saturday, as the U.S. ordered most embassy staff out of the country and Moscow also began withdrawing its diplomatic presence there. “President Biden was clear that, if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on…

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Fred Kaplan writes: As Vladimir Putin steps up his military pressure on the Ukrainian border, there are signs that some members of Russia’s officer corps oppose his actions. The most eyebrow-raising of these dissents is an open letter by retired Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov posted on the website of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, which he chairs. In it, he rejects Putin’s claim that NATO poses a threat to Russia’s vital interests, warns that invading Ukraine “will forever make Russians and…

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Robin Wright writes: For decades, U.S. and Russian leaders have engaged in brinkmanship over territory, influence, and weapons. They’re at it again, this time in Ukraine, with stakes that could shape the balance of power, European unity, the Western alliance, and the success of Joe Biden’s Presidency. On Friday, the national-security adviser, Jake Sullivan, warned that Vladimir Putin could invade even before the Winter Olympics end, on February 20th—and urged all Americans to leave Ukraine immediately. Yet almost frantic diplomacy—as…

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The Guardian reports: In the often acrimonious back-and-forth between Russia and Ukraine in recent years, “fulfilling Minsk” has become something of a meaningless mantra: all sides agree to abide by the 2015 Minsk accords in public, but neither has any real intention of implementing the provisions of the agreement. Yet in his intensive peacemaking efforts this week, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, appears to be pinning his hopes on a renewed attempt to breathe life into the seven-year-old agreement. “The…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: Like many Russians, graduate student Anastasia Bukhteyeva hopes the current standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine doesn’t erupt into a full-scale war. But if fighting does break out, the 24-year-old is sure of one thing: It won’t be Russia’s fault. “I have a feeling that someone is trying to provoke Russia,” said Ms. Bukhteyeva, who is studying to be an elementary school teacher. “I don’t understand who this would be good for, but…

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The Guardian reports: French president Emmanuel Macron believes he can deliver “a historic solution” to the Ukraine crisis ahead of his arrival in Moscow for talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin. After a flurry of diplomatic activity that included talks with US president Joe Biden this weekend and three phone calls with Putin, Macron will land in Moscow on Monday seeking a “de-escalation” of the tense standoff on Ukraine’s eastern borders. Russia has denied planning to invade Ukraine but has…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned Sunday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent and might entail a high cost for the civilians living there. “We are in the window,” Mr. Sullivan told Fox News Sunday. “Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine or it could be a couple of weeks from now, or Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead.” Russia has 83 battalion tactical…

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The Washington Post reports: Russia is close to completing preparations for what appears to be a large-scale invasion of Ukraine that could leave up to 50,000 civilians killed or wounded, decapitate the government in Kyiv within two days, and launch a humanitarian crisis with up to 5 million refugees fleeing the resulting chaos, according to updated U.S. military and intelligence assessments briefed to lawmakers and European partners over the past several days. The rising concerns come as the Russian military…

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Politico reports: French President Emmanuel Macron is optimistic he can secure a de-escalation over Ukraine when he travels to Moscow to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Monday, but hinted that Western countries could have to make concessions to the Kremlin. His bullish prognosis of a diplomatic compromise will trigger alarm bells among those who advocate a more hawkish line on Russia, particularly in Central and Eastern European capitals that fear Russian aggression. In an interview with the weekly…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: The Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk regions were once the engines of the country’s economy and dominated its politics. They produced its richest man, billionaire industrialist Rinat Akhmetov, as well as former President Viktor Yanukovych, ousted by the street protests that triggered the Russian invasion in 2014. Since then, however, the two areas—now nominally independent “people’s republics” inside the larger regions of Luhansk and Donetsk—have turned into impoverished, depopulated enclaves that increasingly rely…

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The New York Times reports: The United States has acquired intelligence about a Russian plan to fabricate a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine using a faked video that would build on recent disinformation campaigns, according to senior administration officials and others briefed on the material. The plan — which the United States hopes to spoil by making public — involves staging and filming a fabricated attack by the Ukrainian military either on Russian territory or against Russian-speaking people in…

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