Attention to the Unseen

Robin Wright writes: For decades, U.S. and Russian leaders have engaged in brinkmanship over territory, influence, and weapons. They’re at it again, this time in Ukraine, with stakes that could shape the balance of power, European unity, the Western alliance, and the success of Joe Biden’s Presidency. On Friday, the national-security adviser, Jake Sullivan, warned that Vladimir Putin could invade even before the Winter Olympics end, on February 20th—and urged all Americans to leave Ukraine immediately. Yet almost frantic diplomacy—as…

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The Guardian reports: In the often acrimonious back-and-forth between Russia and Ukraine in recent years, “fulfilling Minsk” has become something of a meaningless mantra: all sides agree to abide by the 2015 Minsk accords in public, but neither has any real intention of implementing the provisions of the agreement. Yet in his intensive peacemaking efforts this week, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, appears to be pinning his hopes on a renewed attempt to breathe life into the seven-year-old agreement. “The…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: Like many Russians, graduate student Anastasia Bukhteyeva hopes the current standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine doesn’t erupt into a full-scale war. But if fighting does break out, the 24-year-old is sure of one thing: It won’t be Russia’s fault. “I have a feeling that someone is trying to provoke Russia,” said Ms. Bukhteyeva, who is studying to be an elementary school teacher. “I don’t understand who this would be good for, but…

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The Guardian reports: French president Emmanuel Macron believes he can deliver “a historic solution” to the Ukraine crisis ahead of his arrival in Moscow for talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin. After a flurry of diplomatic activity that included talks with US president Joe Biden this weekend and three phone calls with Putin, Macron will land in Moscow on Monday seeking a “de-escalation” of the tense standoff on Ukraine’s eastern borders. Russia has denied planning to invade Ukraine but has…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned Sunday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent and might entail a high cost for the civilians living there. “We are in the window,” Mr. Sullivan told Fox News Sunday. “Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine or it could be a couple of weeks from now, or Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead.” Russia has 83 battalion tactical…

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The Washington Post reports: Russia is close to completing preparations for what appears to be a large-scale invasion of Ukraine that could leave up to 50,000 civilians killed or wounded, decapitate the government in Kyiv within two days, and launch a humanitarian crisis with up to 5 million refugees fleeing the resulting chaos, according to updated U.S. military and intelligence assessments briefed to lawmakers and European partners over the past several days. The rising concerns come as the Russian military…

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Politico reports: French President Emmanuel Macron is optimistic he can secure a de-escalation over Ukraine when he travels to Moscow to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Monday, but hinted that Western countries could have to make concessions to the Kremlin. His bullish prognosis of a diplomatic compromise will trigger alarm bells among those who advocate a more hawkish line on Russia, particularly in Central and Eastern European capitals that fear Russian aggression. In an interview with the weekly…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: The Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk regions were once the engines of the country’s economy and dominated its politics. They produced its richest man, billionaire industrialist Rinat Akhmetov, as well as former President Viktor Yanukovych, ousted by the street protests that triggered the Russian invasion in 2014. Since then, however, the two areas—now nominally independent “people’s republics” inside the larger regions of Luhansk and Donetsk—have turned into impoverished, depopulated enclaves that increasingly rely…

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The New York Times reports: The United States has acquired intelligence about a Russian plan to fabricate a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine using a faked video that would build on recent disinformation campaigns, according to senior administration officials and others briefed on the material. The plan — which the United States hopes to spoil by making public — involves staging and filming a fabricated attack by the Ukrainian military either on Russian territory or against Russian-speaking people in…

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Nathalie Tocci writes: Too much is being made of divisions in the West over how to respond to Russian aggression against Ukraine. The truth is that there is a broad consensus in the transatlantic alliance about how to proceed if Moscow were to invade its neighbor. The biggest differences aren’t about strategy — they’re about who will have to pay the price of carrying out that strategy. To be sure, disagreements do exist. Recent weeks have lain bare divergences over…

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The Associated Press reports: U.N. experts said in a new report that nearly 2,000 children recruited by Yemen’s Houthi rebels died on the battlefield between January 2020 and May 2021, and the Iranian-backed rebels continue to hold camps and courses encouraging youngsters to fight. In the report to the U.N. Security Council circulated Saturday, the experts said they investigated some summer camps in schools and a mosque where the Houthis disseminated their ideology and sought to recruit children fight in…

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BuzzFeed News reports: He walked and talked and dressed like a Ukrainian soldier — and according to a contract with its armed forces, he is one. But Private Aiden “Johnny” Aslin is a British citizen with a Midlands accent and no formal orders from his home government to be fighting on the battlefields of the Donbas. “It was my own decision to come here,” the 27-year-old told BuzzFeed News in this war-ravaged village, just north of the Sea of Azov….

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BBC News reports: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on the West not to create panic amid the build-up of Russian troops on his country’s borders. He told reporters that warnings of an imminent invasion were putting Ukraine’s economy at risk. On Thursday, US President Joe Biden said he believed Russia could attack its neighbour next month. Russia, however, denies it is planning to invade and on Friday its foreign minister said Moscow did not want war. While Russia has…

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