Attention to the Unseen

Michael Weiss and James Rushton report: It was meant to be the Russian “wonder weapon,” but it turned out to be just another example of Vladimir Putin’s military over-promising and under-delivering. The Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” — which means “dagger” in Russian — was billed as a state-of-the-art hypersonic missile, “invincible,” in Putin’s words, to Western air defenses. For the early months of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine, it seemed to be just that. The missile had been used in the first…

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The Washington Post reports: Fresh off his claim of victory in capturing the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Russian mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin warned that Moscow’s brutal war could plunge Russia into turmoil similar to the 1917 revolution unless its detached, wealthy elite become more directly committed to the conflict. In a lengthy interview with Konstantin Dolgov, a political operative and pro-war blogger, Prigozhin, the founder and leader of the Wagner mercenary group, also asserted that the war had backfired spectacularly…

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Lilia Yapparova and Vera Mironova report: In January 2014, when Baurzhan Kultanov first joined the Islamic State, he wasn’t surprised by almost anything he encountered in Syria and Iraq’s occupied territories. While recounting his experiences there, he compared Raqqa, ISIS’s then-capital, to Istanbul, where he had met his recruiters, as well as to his hometown of Astrakhan, Russia. “People live their lives there, just like anywhere,” Kultanov told Meduza. “The women sit at home, they go to the bazaar —…

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Michael Weiss and James Rushton report: Russia may have taken the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut Sunday, but forces aligned with Ukraine apparently took a tiny part of Russia on Monday — or so video and photograph footage suggested as of just after noon local time. Ukrainian armored vehicles, including at least one tank, were seen attacking a border post, in the town of Kozinka, in the Belgorod region of southern Russia. Drone footage, taken from the Ukrainian side of the…

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  A six-month 60 Minutes investigation found the nation’s defense budget is plagued by a military supply chain rife with price gouging.

Reuters reports: George Stawnyczyj voted for Donald Trump twice. On domestic policy, he gives the former president top marks. But he’ll stay home on Election Day should Trump win his party’s nomination to take on Joe Biden in 2024. Stawnyczyj is an official in the Republican Party in rural Carbon County, Pennsylvania. He’s also Ukrainian-American and can’t stomach Trump’s criticism of aid payments to war-torn Ukraine nor his habit of complimenting Vladimir Putin. “The way Trump is talking right now,…

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Omar Abu Layla writes: When assessing the effects of the Russia–Ukraine war on Syria, it is first necessary to mention that the former is the military ally with the single greatest impact on the course of the conflict. Russia seeks to maintain not only its influence in Syria but also its diplomatic and military ambitions in the Middle East, taking advantage of the withdrawal of American troops in 2019, which greenlit the way for Turkey to penetrate deep into Syrian…

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The New York Times reports: Ukrainian soldiers were waiting for just the right moment to attack. Then they received critical intelligence: Russian mercenaries on the other side of the front line outside Bakhmut were about to rotate out and be replaced by other soldiers. It was time to go. “We all felt the adrenaline,” said an infantry soldier who identified himself by his call sign, Face, in accordance with military protocols. Ukrainian soldiers were told to get their kits ready,…

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Politico reports: The U.S. will support a joint international effort to train Ukrainian pilots on modern fighter aircraft, including F-16s, President Joe Biden informed G-7 leaders on Friday in Japan. The training will take place outside Ukraine at a site in Europe and will require months to complete. Officials hope to begin the training in the coming weeks, according to a senior administration official, who like others was granted anonymity to discuss the matter before it was announced. The move…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: In a valley far from the front lines last week, several men practiced dropping a half-full bottle of water from a small aerial drone, as though it were a grenade. Others fired rifles at targets 100 yards away. A third group set off for a trek through the surrounding hills, which burst with white and yellow flowers. Almost none of them had military experience before last year. The Ukrainian military is racing to turn civilians…

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Al Jazeera reports: Analysts said Syria’s readmission to the 22-member Arab League is a strong signal that al-Assad’s isolation is ending, reflecting an important shift in how regional actors view the reality of his government’s survival, in ways that are at odds with the West. Ibrahim Fraihat from the Doha Institute said al-Assad’s mention of the “Arab identity” was significant. “He emphasisied … the Arab identity of Syria, and linking that to the broader Arab region, which is emphasising that…

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Reuters reports: The Pentagon overestimated the value of the ammunition, missiles and other equipment it sent to Ukraine by around $3 billion, a Senate aide and a defense official said on Thursday, an error that may lead the way for more weapons being sent to Kyiv for its defense against Russian forces. The error was the result of assigning a higher than warranted value on weaponry that was taken from U.S. stocks and then shipped to Ukraine, two senior defense…

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CNN reports: The Biden administration has signaled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, sources familiar with the discussions said, as the White House comes under increasing pressure from members of Congress and allies to help Ukraine procure the planes amid intensifying Russian aerial attacks. Administration officials are not aware, however, of any formal requests by any allies to export F-16s, and State Department officials who would normally…

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Anna Nemtsova writes: A mysterious drone attack on the Kremlin. A car bombing that wounded a key advocate of the invasion of Ukraine. Four military aircraft shot down in a single day — inside Russia’s borders. If the Ukrainians and their allies wanted to rattle the Russian leadership, it’s working. Never, in more than two decades of covering Vladimir Putin’s regime, have I seen it in such an obvious state of chaos and disarray. These days, Kremlin-watchers don’t have to read tea leaves or…

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Hein Goemans and Branislav Slantchev write: Russia’s war in Ukraine has been raging for more than a year. And for more than a year, various international leaders—including French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese leader Xi Jinping—not to mention domestic pundits and politicians, have been calling for negotiations to end the bloodshed. Though well-intentioned, these appeals fail to take into account the fundamental nature of war, which requires the fighting to play out before a lasting peace can be a realistic…

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