Attention to the Unseen

Lawrence Freedman writes: The Russo-Ukrainian War is all about territory. Russia wants to complete its occupation of the oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson; Ukraine seeks to liberate all occupied territories, including Crimea. This is what the game theorists call a “zero-sum game” – what one wins the others must lose. This feature of the war explains why a negotiated outcome is so difficult to achieve, why the current battles matter so much, and why those commenting on the…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: Turkey’s president gave his approval for Sweden to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the alliance’s secretary general said, paving the way for NATO to complete a notable expansion launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had agreed to forward Sweden’s accession to the Turkish parliament “as soon as possible.” Erdogan had blocked Sweden’s NATO bid for more than a year but told…

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Reuters reports: President Vladimir Putin has held Kremlin talks with Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and his commanders to discuss the armed mutiny Wagner attempted to mount against the army’s top brass, Putin’s spokesman said on Monday. The meeting was first reported by French newspaper Liberation, which said Prigozhin had met Putin and the head of the National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, and SVR Foreign Intelligence boss Sergei Naryshkin. The meeting, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, was held on…

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Reuters reports: As rebellious Wagner forces drove north toward Moscow on June 24, a contingent of military vehicles diverted east on a highway in the direction of a fortified Russian army base that holds nuclear weapons, according to videos posted online and interviews with local residents. Once the Wagner fighters reach more rural regions, the surveillance trail goes cold – about 100 km from the nuclear base, Voronezh-45. Reuters could not confirm what happened next, and Western officials have repeatedly…

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CNN reports: Ukraine deserves to have NATO membership, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said during a joint press conference in Istanbul alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. During the press conference Erdogan also said he hoped the Black Sea grain deal, which Turkey helped broker with Russia, will be extended. The deal, seen as vital for world food security, is expiring in just ten days. The Turkish president went on to say he will support the rebuilding of Ukraine and that…

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The Washington Post reports: President Biden has approved the provision of U.S. cluster munitions for Ukraine, with drawdown of the weapons from Defense Department stocks due to be announced Friday. The move, which will bypass U.S. law prohibiting the production, use or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1 percent, comes amid concerns about Kyiv’s lagging counteroffensive against entrenched Russian troops and dwindling Western stocks of conventional artillery. It follows months of internal administration debate…

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CNN reports: Russian troops have placed “objects resembling explosives” on roofs at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address Tuesday that instantly sparked concerns around the world. “Perhaps to simulate an attack on the plant. Perhaps they have some other scenario,” Zelensky speculated. But on one point, he was unequivocal: “In any case, the world sees – can’t but see – that the only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power…

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The Washington Post reports: The rebellion in Russia by Wagner mercenaries confronted Western officials with one of their gravest fears: the possibility of political chaos and instability in the country with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. Anxiety over who might gain control of Russia’s weapons of mass destruction has long tempered Western hopes that President Vladimir Putin might be ousted from power. But months of nuclear posturing by Putin and other senior Russian officials, and a new debate among Moscow…

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The Guardian reports: The Kremlin has denied a report that the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, had personally warned his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. “No, I can’t confirm it,” Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters on Wednesday when asked about a Financial Times report that said Xi delivered the message when he visited Moscow in March. Peskov said the two countries had issued statements at the time on the content of their talks, calling all…

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The New York Times reports: The Ukrainian soldiers thought the Russians would quickly retreat from Neskuchne, a tiny village in southern Ukraine, especially after a concerted artillery barrage and a rocket strike on their headquarters. Instead, the Russians dug in, fighting for two days before giving up the village last month, leaving their dead decaying on the roadside and piles of expended ammunition around their makeshift defenses. The Russian defeat, on June 9, was Ukraine’s first win in a prolonged…

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The Observer reports: Suddenly, Yevgeny Prigozhin is a phantom. Is he in Belarus or St Petersburg? In unconfirmed footage that makes him look like a Bond villain, he struts across a rooftop, shadowed by a muscled bodyguard, takes a seat in a helicopter, and vanishes into the skies of St Petersburg. For nearly a decade, Prigozhin has sown scandal in Russia, creating a troll factory empire, leading Russia’s interference into foreign elections and bankrolling the Wagner mercenary group that fought…

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Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian write: Nearly 18 months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine now, amidst last week’s failed coup attempt, battlefield setbacks, and global diplomatic condemnation, Putin is coming under increasing strain to finance his increasingly-expensive war—and there’s a history lesson for how this will all end. Far from the prevailing narrative on how Putin funds his invasion, Putin’s financial lifeline has [been] his merciless cannibalization of Russian economic productivity. He has been burning the living room furniture to fuel his battles…

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The Washington Post reports: During a secret visit to Ukraine by CIA Director William J. Burns earlier this month, Ukrainian officials revealed an ambitious strategy to retake Russian-occupied territory and open cease-fire negotiations with Moscow by the end of the year, according to officials familiar with the visit. The trip by Burns, which has not been previously reported, included meetings with President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine’s top intelligence officials. It came at a critical moment in the conflict as Ukrainian…

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