Attention to the Unseen

CNN reports: President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy and countermeasures by America’s trading partners will likely deal a heavy blow to economies worldwide, with US prosperity hit particularly hard, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday. Global economic growth will slow to 2.8% this year, from 3.3% last year and significantly below the historical average, the IMF forecast in its World Economic Outlook report. The slowdown expected in the United States is even steeper, with its economy likely to grow only…

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Reuters reports: General Motors’ Buick was on a roll. Sales for the once-stodgy brand were up 39% in the first quarter with a refreshed lineup of compact SUVs including the Envision, Encore GX, and the Envista, its top-selling SUV for under $30,000. Then President Trump’s tariffs hit. Buick’s three most popular models are made outside the U.S. The Envista and Encore GX are both built in South Korea, while the Envision SUV is made in China. That means all three…

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CNBC reports: President Donald Trump is registering the worst economic approval numbers of his presidential career amid broad discontent over his handling of tariffs, inflation and government spending, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey. The survey found that the boost in economic optimism that accompanied Trump’s reelection has disappeared, with more Americans now believing the economy will get worse than at any time since 2023 and with a sharp turn toward pessimism about the stock market. The survey…

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David Wallace-Wells writes: China’s share of global manufacturing has grown so much that by 2030, it is expected to reach seven times what it was in 2000; America’s will have fallen by half. And while Trump’s supporters describe the trade war as an effort to reverse that pattern, they’ve done so little beyond erratic tariffs — with no major pledges of government investment and no real commitment to policy stability — it all looks more like policy by culture-war meme….

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In a lead editorial, The Economist says: The dollar is meant to be a source of safety. Lately, however, it has been a cause of fear. Since its peak in mid-January the greenback has fallen by over 9% against a basket of major currencies. Two-fifths of that fall has happened since April 1st, even as the yield on ten-year Treasuries has crept up by 0.2 percentage points. That mix of rising yields and a falling currency is a warning sign:…

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The New York Times reports: When President Trump paused a punishing round of global tariffs last week, he attributed his change of heart to one main thing. “I was watching the bond market,” he said. “The bond market is very tricky.” Mr. Trump should know — he had a big personal stake in it. A New York Times analysis of Mr. Trump’s financial holdings shows that he had roughly $125 million to about $443 million invested in bonds as of…

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Politico reports: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly cautioned White House officials that any attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell would risk destabilizing financial markets, according to two people close to the White House granted anonymity to share details of private discussions. Bessent’s private message reinforces what President Donald Trump already knows but comes as the president’s anger with the Fed chair is growing because Powell hasn’t shown signs that he will cut interest rates soon. It also…

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Bloomberg reports: The US economy is set to lose billions of dollars in revenue in 2025 from a pullback in foreign tourism and boycotts of American products, adding to a growing list of headwinds keeping recession risk elevated. Arrivals of non-citizens to the US by plane dropped almost 10 per cent in March from a year earlier, according to data published Monday by the International Trade Administration. Goldman Sachs estimates in a worst-case scenario, the hit this year from reduced…

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The New York Times reports: There are not many certainties in the world of money, but this traditionally has been one of them: When life turns scary, people take refuge in American government bonds. Investors buy U.S. Treasuries on the assumption that, come what may — financial panic, war, natural disaster — the federal government will endure and stand by its debts, making its bonds the closest thing to a covenant with the heavens. Yet turmoil in bond markets last…

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The New York Times reports: Britain has watched President Trump’s tariffs with a mix of shock, fascination and queasy recognition. The country, after all, embarked on a similar experiment in economic isolationism when it voted to leave the European Union in 2016. Nearly nine years after the Brexit referendum, it is still reckoning with the costs. The lessons of that experience are suddenly relevant again as Mr. Trump uses a similar playbook to erect walls around the United States. Critics…

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George Monbiot writes: “He’s really gone and done it this time. Now everyone can see what a disaster he is.” How many times have we heard this about Donald Trump? And how many times has it been proved wrong? Well, maybe this time he really has overstepped. After all, his clowning around with tariffs, sparking trade wars, then suddenly reversing his position, could provoke a global recession, perhaps even a depression. Surely his supporters will disown him? But I’m not banking…

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Stephen McDonell writes: In response to why Beijing is not backing down to Donald Trump on tariffs, the answer is that it doesn’t have to. China’s leaders would say that they are not inclined to cave in to a bully – something its government has repeatedly labelled the Trump administration as – but it also has a capacity to do this way beyond any other country on Earth. Before the tariff war kicked in, China did have a massive volume…

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Paul Krugman writes: There’s an old line about military analysis: “Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals talk about logistics.” Well, when it comes to taking the pulse of financial markets, amateurs talk about stocks, but professionals talk about bond and currency markets. That’s because bond and currency markets are generally less driven by emotion. There’s no “meme gambling investing” in bond and currency markets. And these markets are both signaling major loss of faith in America. First, about tariffs: It’s…

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