Attention to the Unseen

By Peter Boumgarden, Washington University in St. Louis and Dilawar Syed, The University of Texas at Austin Imagine it’s April 2025 and you’re the owner of a small but fast-growing e-commerce business. Historically, you’ve sourced products from China, but the president just announced tariffs of 145% on these goods. Do you set up operations in Thailand – requiring new investment and a lot of work – or wait until there’s more clarity on trade? What if waiting too long means…

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George A. Akerlof writes: Imagine a group of 5-year-olds playing a board game. The rules are clear, the goal is fair, and one child edges ahead — until, suddenly, another child starts losing. That’s when the trouble begins. “He cheated!” the losing child yells. “I’m the winner anyway!” he declares. And then, like clockwork, he flips the board. In the world of kindergarten conflict resolution, we expect this kind of behavior. We chalk it up to development. We teach better…

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Reuters reports: China has approved 183 new Brazilian coffee companies to export products to the Chinese market, according to a social media post of the Chinese embassy in Brazil on Saturday. The measure, a boon to local exporters after the United States government’s announcement of steep tariffs on Brazilian coffee and other products, took effect on July 30. The new Chinese export permits are valid for five years, according to the post. The U.S.’s 50% tariff on some Brazilian products…

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The Washington Post reports: For months, the U.S. economy appeared to be weathering the disruptive effects of President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies. But over the course of 72 hours, that sunny outlook darkened, as the latest government data this week showed the president’s revolutionary remaking of the world’s largest economy had hit a snag. Friday’s disappointing jobs report revealed a labor market that is much weaker than either the White House or Federal Reserve understood. Inflation, the voter…

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The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics issued a statement following Commissioner McEntarfer’s removal: Today, President Trump called into question the integrity of the Employment Situation report that the BLS released this morning. He accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately reporting false numbers to reflect poorly on this administration. This baseless, damaging claim undermines the valuable work and dedication of BLS staff who produce the reports each month. This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and…

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Reuters reports: Under a broiling Alabama sky a frustrated Robby Robertson, a construction site superintendent, surveys an 84,000 square foot, mostly built recreation center close to the Gulf coast port city of Mobile. The site is eerily quiet. Last month, the $20 million project was on track for on-time completion by November 1. Now Robertson says he is looking at a three-week delay after about half of his workers – scared by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement raid on a…

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David Pressman writes: As the most recent U.S. ambassador to Viktor Orban’s Hungary, I’m often asked if the Trump administration’s tactics and policies feel familiar. The short answer is yes. But the more important — and unsettling — question is this: Does the way Americans are responding feel familiar, too? After years watching Hungary suffocate under the weight of its democratic collapse, I came to understand that the real danger of a strongman isn’t his tactics; it’s how others, especially…

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The New York Times reports: Trade chaos is forcing America’s allies closer together, and further from the United States. And as that happens, the European Union is trying to position itself at the center of a new global trade map. The bloc learned this weekend that Washington would subject it to 30 percent tariffs starting Aug. 1. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the E.U. executive branch, responded with a pledge to keep negotiating. She also made it clear…

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The New York Times reports: Six months into his new administration, President Trump’s assault on global trade has lost any semblance of organization or structure. He has changed deadlines suddenly. He has blown up negotiations at the 11th hour, often raising unexpected issues. He has tied his tariffs to complaints that have nothing to do with trade, like Brazil’s treatment of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, or the flow of fentanyl from Canada. Talks with the United States were like…

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The Washington Post reports: Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump has used trade as a cudgel to exert concessions from smaller nations. But Brazil, his newest tariff target, is a much more formidable adversary, analysts said, and is less likely to bend to pressure from Washington. Latin America’s largest nation has a relatively closed economy, more insulated than many of its peers from fluctuations in global trade. China, not the United States, is now Brazil’s leading trade…

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Politico reports: President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration is starting to ripple across the U.S. economy. From small farms in California, to meat packing facilities in Nebraska to corporate giants like Disney, businesses are scrambling to replace workers after recent administration actions have taken immigrants, both legal and illegal, out of the labor force, including several hundred thousand people who had been given temporary work permits under President Joe Biden. That’s because foreign-born workers, or their relatives, have become critical…

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Reuters reports: U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Tuesday that there will be “no amnesty” for agricultural workers as President Donald Trump’s administration moves to deport all immigrants in the country illegally. Rollins said the administration wants a 100% American workforce and suggested some people receiving government aid could replace immigrant workers. “Ultimately, the answer on this is automation, also some reform within the current governing structure. And then also, when you think about, there are 34 million able-bodied…

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