Expect coffee prices to soar as Trump’s tariffs backfire
China has approved 183 new Brazilian coffee companies to export products to the Chinese market, according to a social media post of the Chinese embassy in Brazil on Saturday.
The measure, a boon to local exporters after the United States government’s announcement of steep tariffs on Brazilian coffee and other products, took effect on July 30.
The new Chinese export permits are valid for five years, according to the post.
The U.S.’s 50% tariff on some Brazilian products will begin on August 6.
The levy represents a challenge for commodities traders and Brazilian coffee exporters, who need to find alternatives for the roughly 8 million bags sold to U.S. coffee processors every year. [Continue reading…]
The Wall Street Journal reports:
Brazilian arabica beans are the source for roughly 35% to 40% of the coffee consumed in the U.S. A levy on imports starting Aug. 6 would increase the price of coffee in cafes and grocery stores alike.
Brazil is by far the leading producer of coffee worldwide. It is expected to produce a total of 65 million bags of beans in the 2025-26 marketing year—more than double the next-largest producer, Vietnam—the Department of Agriculture estimates.
At more than 40 million bags, Brazil produces more arabica coffee than the next five leading producers in the world combined. This includes such countries as Colombia and Honduras, where U.S. coffee makers already buy a large portion of their output.
“We don’t have an easy ability to replace Brazilian coffee,” said James Watson, senior beverage analyst with Rabobank. “For the most part, most of what you drink is all arabica.” [Continue reading…]