The New York Times reports:

Since President Trump announced a cease-fire with Iran in April, he has sought to force Tehran to accept his terms for a peace deal with a mixture of threats and limited military operations.

But more than a month later, the contours of a deal emerging this week to end the war reflected how Mr. Trump’s pressure campaign does not appear to have decisively shifted Iran’s stance on its nuclear program.

The impending deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway for oil and gas, which Iran has blockaded since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began the war in late February. But it may delay big decisions on other thorny issues until later.

The Strait of Hormuz was already supposed to be open at this point. Free passage had been Mr. Trump’s condition for pausing the war in April.

U.S. officials hoped that if ships again flowed freely, surging gas prices would fall, domestic rancor over the war would calm down and Iran would have less leverage in the talks.

But Iranian forces have maintained their grip on the strait, and whatever the United States tried did not loosen it. [Continue reading…]

Danny Citrinowicz was interviewed by The New Yorker:

How would you characterize the contours of this potential deal, and is there any way to spin it as something other than a humiliating failure for the U.S.?

Unfortunately, no. Trump had to choose between a bad option and a worse one, and it seems like, even though we don’t know what will happen in any deal, or if there will even be one, that he has chosen the very bad one. But it is still the best option that he had. We have to remember what happened on February 28th—that Israel and the United States launched this campaign to topple the regime. In fact, they ended up strengthening it. Opening the strait is not an achievement, since its closing was a by-product of the war itself. The Iranians are going to get some money, and sanctions relief may come after the deal is signed, too. If they don’t get money from this, they won’t do it. So, in that regard, what we’re facing right now is a war that may have been a tactical success for the U.S., but is a strategic failure.

But I think Trump is fed up with the current situation, and I think that he’s also afraid of escalation. He could escalate tomorrow, but I think he’s afraid of having boots on the ground. And I think he might be starting to understand that even escalation won’t change the strategic situation, because the Iranians are not going to capitulate. A blockade won’t do it; hitting energy facilities won’t do it; nothing will. And they’re ready to retaliate. So Trump didn’t have any other options besides this deal. [Continue reading…]