The Times of Israel spoke to regime opponents in Iran:

All five respondents who spoke to The Times of Israel claimed the vast majority of Iranians oppose the regime and want it overthrown — a stance that is difficult to measure in a country where polling is restricted, dissent is criminalized, and internet access has been repeatedly curtailed.

Nasrin, a 35-year-old from the northernmost part of Iran, said that while some 10% of Iranians still support the regime, ordinary Iranians are visibly infuriated with the current government. “If you just walk through the streets, you can clearly see how angry honorable, ordinary people are over these people remaining in power,” she said. “I hope Trump and Netanyahu do something for these people.”

While there has been visible rallying behind the regime in reaction to the war, Kaveh [a teacher in his 40s living in Isfahan] believed that “the war against the Islamic Republic has not increased Iranian support for the Islamic regime. The minority of 10-15% who support or work for the regime is still the same percentage — perhaps even somewhat smaller because of the severe economic crisis.”

While Trump has insisted that eliminating Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials effectively amounted to regime change, respondents rejected that framing outright.

“I completely disagree with Trump’s view [about effective regime change]. This regime is still standing,” Kaveh said. “The regime is still being run by the same [type of] people. Only the names have changed! Its structure is exactly the same as before.”

Rostam [a university student in Tehran] charged that “Trump backed down and lost his nerve!”

“The regime is not just Khamenei — the rest of it is still in place. [It] still has the same determination and forces for killing the people,” he said.

According to analysts, Iran’s hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a military group loyal to the country’s ruling clerics, has become the main nexus of power in Tehran.

Experts have assessed that the IRGC, and not the newly elected Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, has dominated wartime government policy, in the absence of a decisive or authoritative leader. [Continue reading…]