The Wall Street Journal reports:

The U.S. and Iran are locked in a diplomatic stalemate over issues that have bedeviled the two sides for years, as the conflict settles into a gray zone that is neither war nor peace.

The cease-fire is entering its second month and, despite sporadic violence, has now lasted almost as long as the fighting which preceded it. There is little to indicate that either the U.S. or Iran is ready to compromise, but neither wants to start fighting again.

President Trump on Monday warned that the cease-fire with Iran is “on life support” and said he wouldn’t back off his goal of pressing Iran to abandon its nuclear program. Trump told reporters at the White House that Iran believed he would get tired or bored of the conflict, or feel pressure to end it because of rising energy prices.

“But there’s no pressure,” Trump said. “We’re going to have a complete victory.”

Iran, meanwhile, continues to portray itself as the winner of the conflict, its regime intact, its missile and nuclear programs still a threat. A top Iranian official Monday warned the U.S. against escalation. “Our armed forces are ready to deliver a well-deserved response to any aggression,” said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in a post on X.

But instead of fighting, both sides have doubled down on dueling blockades that are hard to undo without one side blinking. The Trump administration has tightened a U.S. embargo of Iranian ports and vessels, while Iran has maintained its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy-transport waterway.

“We’re in a situation where the only options left are a lot of bad options,” said Allison Minor, a former U.S. official on Middle East policy now at the Atlantic Council think tank.

If the administration wants the standoff ended swiftly, the U.S. could face pressure to water down its key goals. “The Trump administration is going to be forced to choose,” said Minor. [Continue reading…]