Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Greg Weaver write:

The U.S. has long framed the invasion of Ukraine as a strategic failure for Russia. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared it as such in June 2023, saying: “Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine has been a strategic failure, greatly diminishing Russia’s power, its interests, and its influence for years to come.”

And yet, in the last two months, a growing number of Western officials have warned of a military threat from Russia against countries along NATO’s eastern flank.

The chief of Estonia’s intelligence service said in February: “Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation … and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so.” Meanwhile, the Danish and German defense ministers have similarly warned that Russia could attack NATO in less than a decade.

The critical question now is: Does Russia pose a credible threat to NATO?

Currently, there are numerous factors working to dissuade Russia from challenging NATO, but there’s one scenario that stands out as a plausible pathway to conflict — and that’s if the Kremlin comes to underestimate Western, and most importantly U.S., resolve to fight under certain conditions.

Among the mounting reasons which could lead the Kremlin to believe the U.S. and NATO lack the will to fight, the most immediate is the potential reelection of former U.S. President Donald Trump. This would raise serious questions about Washington’s commitment to Europe, as during his time in office, Trump had openly questioned America’s involvement with NATO and threatened to withdraw from the alliance. His recent statements inviting Russia to attack allies that don’t meet their defense spending commitments indicates that his views have not changed. [Continue reading…]