McKinsey Global Institute reports:

While social media abounds with dire predictions about the impact of AI on labor, the United States is likely to have more jobs available in 2035 than today, but with fewer workers because the population is aging. While estimates of the full impact of AI on the workforce differ widely, our base estimate indicates that automation could reduce labor demand by the equivalent of roughly 36 million jobs, while growth in the AI value chain and the broader economy could generate demand for more than 40 million jobs over the next decade.

Our estimates reflect four factors. First, automation enabled by AI and other technologies could reduce labor demand, but not on a one-for-one basis, because automation of work does not translate directly into job losses. Second, the demographic backdrop and rising living standards could drive sustained labor demand growth in the “human economy”—jobs that are often harder to automate and already face or could face labor shortages. Third, the AI boom, combined with the need to modernize infrastructure, could increase demand for workers in both the “physical economy” and the “tech economy.” Finally, we expect AI itself to create new jobs that we cannot yet imagine, just as previous general-purpose technologies did. Much of this shift would occur within occupations, but roughly 11 million US workers, or about 7 percent of current employees, might need to shift between occupations to secure new jobs.

Counting jobs is an insufficient measure of the impact of new technology. Job opportunities can be abundant and yet leave millions of workers without work if those positions require different skills, credentials, locations, or pay structures than current jobs. Many growing jobs in the next decades will require new and more skills, so having viable pathways from shrinking to growing jobs will be critical to successful transitions in a labor market shaped by automation. [Continue reading…]