Mohammed Al-Qadhi writes:

There are moments in Yemen’s long war when the map changes faster than politicians can understand it. The collapse of the western coast this month was one of them.

The lightning offensive by Yemen’s Houthi movement and its seizure of key positions around the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are game changers in the country’s 12-year conflict, fundamentally reshaping the domestic balance of power and bearing consequences that go far beyond Yemen’s borders. By extending their reach to one of the world’s most vital maritime choke points, the Houthis have opened a new strategic dimension in the conflict, giving Iran further leverage against the United States, in addition to its existing influence around the Strait of Hormuz. This development presents a serious challenge to Saudi Arabia and other Red Sea states, as well as maritime traffic in the south of that sea.

For years, retaining hold of the coastline stretching from Mokha to Bab al-Mandab had represented one of the most important military achievements of the forces fighting the Houthis. In 2017, forces backed by the Saudi-led coalition, particularly those supported and led by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), fought their way down the coast in an operation known as Golden Arrow. It began on Jan. 7, and Mokha had been declared recaptured by Jan. 23. This first stage secured roughly 50 miles of coastline, although several more weeks were required to clear Houthi pockets from the surrounding areas. The operation had taken about 16 days to reach Mokha. Almost a decade later, the same geography changed hands in roughly seven days. [Continue reading…]