The Guardian reports:

Russia is losing about 6,000 more troops in Ukraine each month than it can recruit, western officials have said.

While Russia is still acquiring new battlefield recruits at speed, with an estimated rate of 1,000 a day, in the last two months even this has not been sufficient to replace those killed or injured.

“We estimate that the gap between the number of people Russia is losing to casualties and the number they’re being able to recruit is around 6,000 a month at the moment,” one western official said.

“Putin’s response to this has been to escalate himself and to target civilian infrastructure and civilians in Ukraine, firing over 360 missiles since early July and exploiting Kyiv’s shortage of defence against ballistic missiles. It’s clear that Moscow intends to try and break Ukrainian morale by destroying its energy infrastructure this winter.”

Such tactics are in part because Putin has limited options for overcoming the huge losses on the battlefield with more recruitment.

Western officials believe further mobilisation would be a big risk both politically and economically, saying the last such event, in autumn 2022, saw about a million – often highly skilled – Russians leave the country, with less than half returning.

It is also unclear whether the Russian military could absorb the several hundred thousand new recruits which would result, given a lack of equipment and officers. [Continue reading…]