Dan Gearino writes:

Forecasts of U.S. data center growth defy belief—and common sense.

“The math isn’t mathing,” as many observers have said.

Growth forecasts continue to climb, but there is little evidence that AI data center developers have profitable, sustainable business models. And nearly every major project is facing local opposition over concerns about land, power and water use.

On Tuesday, BloombergNEF revised its estimate for data center electricity demand to 194 gigawatts by 2035, an 83 percent increase from its estimate six months ago. Under this model, data centers would use about 20 percent of the country’s electricity, up from 5.9 percent today. For context, the U.S. industrial sector—essentially all factories for all industries—used 25.7 percent of electricity last year.

To have data centers responsible for such a large share of projected growth is … well, “insane” is the first word that comes to mind.

There are three main reasons why I am skeptical of the growth forecasts: [Continue reading…]