The Wall Street Journal reports:

After more than three months of bombing and blockades, the U.S. and Iran are back to square one, preparing for what promises to be difficult negotiations over limits to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

This time, the Iranians will come to the table armed with valuable knowledge: They can survive the worst the Americans can throw at them.

President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gambled that their fierce campaign of airstrikes, launched on Feb. 28 and lasting 40 days, would overthrow Iran’s theocratic regime, or at the very least force it to make major concessions.

None of that happened, despite the killing of much of Iran’s senior leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the decimation of the country’s navy, air force and other military assets.

Instead, the Iranian regime has survived and consolidated, under new and perhaps even more radical commanders. It has also gained a new instrument with worldwide consequences through its control of the Strait of Hormuz, while the war has led to unprecedented American restrictions on the behavior of Israel’s military.

“Iran is leaving this war with a sense of euphoria. They are managing the Strait of Hormuz, nobody was able to force them to back down militarily,” said Meir Javedanfar, an Iran expert at Israel’s Reichman University. He predicted Iran will now see the Persian Gulf’s oil-rich monarchies as its own sphere of influence.

Meanwhile, the war—which consumed a large part of U.S. precision munitions and inflicted damage on key U.S. military facilities in the region—has also exposed the limits of American military power. This, in turn, has undermined Washington’s main argument in its attempts to wring future nuclear concessions from Tehran, which retains a stockpile of highly enriched uranium and has yet to agree to renewed international inspections.

“When it comes to nuclear negotiations, we are back at the prewar stage, but with the U.S. leverage removed,” said Dania Thafer, director of the Gulf International Forum think tank. “Pandora’s box has already been opened, everything has been tested, and Iran feels it doesn’t have much more to lose or to fear. The worst has already happened, from the Iranian perspective, and they have survived it.” [Continue reading…]