The Wall Street Journal reports:

Iran and the U.S. have agreed on a peace deal, the two nations announced Sunday, a major breakthrough after nearly four months of fighting that created global political and economic turmoil.

President Trump, in an interview earlier Sunday with The Wall Street Journal, said this deal would either be signed electronically by himself or Vice President JD Vance on Sunday. Pakistani negotiators said a formal signing would come later this week. Trump’s interview with the Journal came just hours before he was set to attend a large-scale Ultimate Fighting Championship fight on the White House’s lawn.

“Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED,” said Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of lead mediator Pakistan. “Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”

The official signing ceremony will be on Friday in Switzerland, Sharif said on his X social-media account.

Trump, in a 5:29 p.m. social-media post, wrote that the “Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”

The government in Tehran later confirmed the deal had been struck. “Agreement reached,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a post on his X account. “Greetings to Diplomacy General,” he said, under a picture of Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi.

Some have described the agreement as a “memorandum of understanding” that would set up further talks, but Trump said Sunday that this would be a major step toward ending the nearly four-month conflict.

The pact includes commitments to end the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The Islamic Republic is set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. is expected to end its blockade of Iran ports.

The agreement also paves the way for a 60-day period of negotiations over Tehran’s controversial nuclear program, which the U.S. suspects could be used to develop a nuclear weapon. In exchange for curbs on the program, Iran expects access to billions of dollars of cash blocked abroad and an end to sanctions that have stifled its economy.

The president has repeatedly expressed optimism about a deal with the Iranians, even suggesting for more than a month that it was all but clinched. But often these talks have fallen apart at the last minute without signoff from the Iranians. Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with the war as it has driven up gasoline prices and splintered some of his supporters.

Trump said he wasn’t as concerned about changing Iran’s regime as some of his critics.

“As far as regime change, I never cared about regime change. This is the third group we’ve dealt with, and this is the most rational group yet,” Trump said.

The interview came just hours after Trump expressed frustration with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu for an exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah, which appeared to almost scuttle the sensitive talks. The U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran on Feb. 28, but relations between the White House and Israel have been strained since then over conflicting objectives.

“Bibi shouldn’t have done that,” Trump said on Sunday’s strikes inside Lebanon. “I didn’t like it at all. They fired a couple small missiles, and missed their mark by a lot.”

“They have to fire back, then he’ll fire back, then the whole thing never stops in the Middle East,” he said.

But Trump claimed Netanyahu was supportive of the deal. “Bibi is OK with it,” he said. “Why is it good for Bibi? Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon under any circumstance.”

Netanyahu has expressed concerns about the terms of a deal. [Continue reading…]

Anwar Iqbal writes:

According to Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, what is taking shape remains preliminary.

“It’s not a deal. It’s an MoU [Memorandum of Understanding]. It’s a rough outline and high-level explanation of the concepts a deal is supposed to be about,” he said, noting that a 60-day negotiating window would likely follow.

Panikoff argues that Washington must preserve leverage throughout this period, including a continued US military presence in the region as a deterrent signal.

He also stresses the need for closer coordination with European partners, saying the US should work with France, Germany and the UK to ensure “a unified policy toward Iran”.

He further suggests that any durable agreement would likely have to extend beyond nuclear constraints to include Iran’s missile programme and regional network of allied groups, alongside wider regional stabilisation efforts.

While the possible agreement is drawing attention as a diplomatic opening, analysts at the Brookings Institution argue that it is unfolding against a backdrop of deeper geopolitical strain. [Continue reading…]