Pjotr Sauer and Shaun Walker write:

Vladimir Putin pulled up to a hotel in central Moscow earlier in May in a Russian-made SUV, dressed casually in jeans and a light jacket. Carrying a bouquet of flowers, he walked unhurriedly into the lobby and embraced his former schoolteacher Vera Gurevich, who kissed him on both cheeks.

He then helped Gurevich into his car and drove her to dinner at the Kremlin.

It came just a day after several western media outlets, citing a European intelligence report, claimed Putin had spent weeks hiding in an underground bunker, gripped by fears of assassination or even a coup.

The televised meeting was carefully crafted to reinforce a very different image of the Russian leader, one which he has refined over 25 years in power: the approachable, confident president, a man of the people casually dropping in on an old teacher.

But while fears of an imminent coup are exaggerated, there is little doubt that Putin is entering the most challenging period of his long rule. Interviews with several people in the orbit of the Russian leader, as well as sources in the Russian business world and western intelligence officials, paint a picture of an isolated leader surrounded by an elite that is becoming rapidly disillusioned, both with the faltering war in Ukraine and the economic downturn at home.

“There’s definitely been a shift in mood among the elites this year … there is profound disappointment in Putin,” said a well-connected business leader, adding that there was “a growing sense that some kind of catastrophe is looming”.

“No one believes everything will suddenly collapse tomorrow,” the source said. “But there is a growing realisation that utterly senseless, self-destructive decisions keep being made. People who once defended Putin no longer do. Any sense of a future has disappeared.”

Putin’s approval ratings are slipping, the economy is under mounting pressure, and even pro-Kremlin bloggers who have rarely criticised the president are beginning to speak out.

Despite the cracks emerging at home, Putin’s calculus on the war in Ukraine has not changed, and he remains determined to press on, according to interviews with multiple people familiar with his thinking, as well as European and Ukrainian intelligence officials.

Putin has made clear to his inner circle that he believes Moscow can capture the entirety of the Donbas region by the end of the year, two sources with access to the president said. “Putin is fixated on Donbas and he will not stop before that,” one of them said.

Speaking after the 9 May Victory Day parade – scaled back amid fears of Ukrainian drone attacks – Putin surprised many by suggesting the war was “coming to a close”. The remark made headlines, but those familiar with his thinking caution that it should not be interpreted as a sign he is prepared to compromise. Instead, it suggests Putin believes a military breakthrough is imminent.

A Ukrainian intelligence official said Russian generals had convinced the Russian leader that the Donbas would be taken by the end of the year. “Fabricated reports [are] being fed up the chain of command, claiming victory is imminent,” the official said.

That bravado is not currently reflected on the battlefield. Military analysts say that, at the current pace of advance, it could take Russia years to fully capture the Donbas. [Continue reading…]