The New York Times reports:

Vice President JD Vance wasn’t the only right-wing ally whose last-minute pitch for Prime Minister Viktor Orban fell flat. In the weeks before Mr. Orban lost power in a landslide election on Sunday, Hungary’s faltering populist was also flanked on the campaign trail by far-right leaders from France, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands.

Now, those politicians must reckon with the bruising defeat of a man who was at once their leadership model, intellectual godfather and, in some cases, long-distance financier. What lessons they draw from his defeat could foretell whether the populist, far-right wave keeps rolling across Europe.

With far-right parties in France, Britain and Germany all within striking distance of power, Hungary offers a road map for how populist movements can go astray, said Jean-Yves Camus, an expert on the far right at the Jean Jaurès Foundation, a left-leaning think tank in Paris.

Mr. Orban, he said, was brought down after 16 years in power by voters fed up with his government’s corruption, inattention to the economy and ceaseless battles with the European Union. His coziness with President Trump, embodied by Mr. Vance’s visit, did nothing to help and may have added to the backlash because of the unpopularity of the American-Israeli war on Iran and the resulting spike in energy costs.

On that last point, there are signs that leaders are taking the lesson to heart. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, whose far-right pedigree and assiduous cultivation of Mr. Trump had earned her the reputation of “Trump whisperer,” broke openly with him this week, calling his criticism of Pope Leo XIV over the war “unacceptable.”

Ms. Meloni has also edged away from Mr. Trump on the war. She has joined more centrist European leaders, like President Emmanuel Macron of France and Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, in preventing American war planes from using air bases on European soil as a springboard for offensive strikes on Iran.

Nigel Farage, the leader of Britain’s far-right party, Reform U.K., stumped for Mr. Trump during his three presidential campaigns and was a regular visitor to his Palm Beach estate, Mar-a-Lago, hoping for a return endorsement.

As it became clear how unpopular Mr. Trump has become in Britain, even among some Reform voters, Mr. Farage has gone, by his own description, from fast friend to chance acquaintance. “I happen to know him,” he told The Financial Times this week, “but that’s by the by.”

Still, in other ways, analysts said Europe’s far-right parties remain vulnerable to the same failings that brought down Mr. Orban’s Fidesz party. [Continue reading…]