Austin Kocher writes:

I came across a fascinating new national survey today from Morris Predictive Insights that I wanted to share. I have been paying closer attention to polling data lately, especially anything that tracks the relationship between immigration enforcement and how voters perceive the parties heading into 2026. This one stood out. It is a poll of 1,500 U.S. adults conducted February 6-10, and it offers some of the clearest evidence yet that the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement agenda is not the political winner that its architects assume it to be.

Nearly seven in ten Americans believe the administration is focusing too much on deportations and not enough on the economy, inflation, and the cost of living. That number alone is striking. But the more revealing findings are in the crosstabs.

The survey focuses on what the pollster calls “Trump defectors,” defined as 2024 Trump voters who now say they would vote for a Democrat in Congress or are undecided. That group represents roughly 14% of Trump’s 2024 coalition, and their reasons for leaving are telling. When asked to identify the biggest factors driving their changed opinion, the economy and cost of living came in first at 49%, followed by Trump’s personal conduct at 34%. But ICE deployments to cities ranked third at 32%, and immigration enforcement and deportation policies came in fourth at 27%. Combined, immigration enforcement issues are a major factor pushing voters out of the Republican coalition.

The demographic profile of these defectors is also worth noting. Compared to loyal Trump voters, they are younger (median age 40 versus 54), more racially diverse (54% White non-Hispanic versus 76%), and more urban (64% urban or suburban versus 51%). This is exactly the slice of the electorate that Republicans need to hold in competitive House and Senate races in 2026, and enforcement policy appears to be actively pushing them away. [Continue reading…]