Erica FrantzAndrea Kendall-Taylor and Joseph Wright write:

When President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China meet this week the world will be watching to see if they can lock in a framework trade agreement and finally restore a sense of lasting stability and predictability to the world’s most consequential relationship.

Don’t count on it.

Whatever rhetoric or handshake deals come out of their planned encounter at a regional summit in South Korea, they are unlikely to signify more than a momentary truce between two leaders unchecked by domestic or institutional constraints and free to change course on a whim.

Welcome to the new strongman era.

If the world seems on edge these days, with alliances fraying, violent conflicts emerging and volatility as the order of the day, there’s a reason. These are the early shocks of a world being shaped by leaders who govern by personal will instead of rules and consensus.

Leaders like these are rising all over the globe — Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, Kais Saied in Tunisia and Viktor Orban in Hungary, along with well-established authoritarians such as Vladimir Putin of Russia and Kim Jong-un of North Korea.

And now, for the first time in the U.S.-China relationship, the two countries are being led by men with similar political styles. The consequences, at least for the next four years, are likely to be profound: more risk-taking, volatility and potential for miscalculation and conflict.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi, and the nations they lead, differ of course in myriad ways. Yet both men have sought to bend their political systems to their will. Mr. Trump has hijacked the Republican Party and made it into a personal political vehicle. Mr. Xi asserts a degree of control over China that Mao would have envied.

Their lack of domestic constraints gives them great latitude for deal-making, but it also makes any potential agreements flimsy and subject to change. Strongmen can be unreliable international partners. Surrounded by loyalists and weakened restraints on their power, they face few domestic consequences for reneging on promises or abruptly changing course. We’ve seen this already from the two presidents: The Trump administration accuses China of failing to honor trade pledges made during Mr. Trump’s first term, and Mr. Trump himself has repeatedly announced tariffs on trade partners this year only to reverse himself soon after.

The lack of constraints can work against global security. Because strongmen are not held accountable, they do not have to make good on their word, so their threats lack credibility. Amid the bluster, their counterparts find it difficult to gauge where the red lines truly are — Mr. Trump delivered multiple ultimatums to Mr. Putin for a cease-fire in Ukraine that he has systematically ignored.

In such an environment, guardrails for international behavior fade away, increasing the likelihood for conflict. A growing body of research shows that authoritarian leaders — surrounded by yes men who feed their egos and policy convictions — are more likely to take risks, start wars and escalate conflicts. [Continue reading…]