Barbara Slavin writes:

As I write this early on a Friday morning, the bombs, missiles, and drones are continuing to fly between Israel and Iran. Diplomacy is at threat, and an already bloodied Middle East is on edge.

It is far too soon to predict the outcome of Israel’s massive assault on a long-time enemy — as well as the spillover effects on Israel’s chief ally, the U.S. Already, Iran has lost its top military leadership and its main facility for enriching uranium. Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu has praised Israeli military acumen and revealed that the attack plans were months in the making. He has called the assault a legitimate act of anticipatory self-defense against a hostile country with a rapidly increasing stockpile of highly enriched uranium. But Israeli triumphalism may be premature. Iran can and likely will reconstitute its program and might be incentivized to covertly develop nuclear weapons. And the assault could unify Iranians around what had otherwise been an unpopular regime.

A long-time writer for the Stimson Center in Tehran, who must go unnamed for reasons of personal security, wrote to me this morning:

“What is important right now is that the schisms within Iranian politics have disappeared already. It only took a few hours for people to unite behind the regime. All domestic factions, dissidents, oppositions of all trends inside Iran, critics, etc. have all united. Their messages of unity are already spreading like wildfire. Message is let’s put differences aside and fight for Iran instead. After only 3 hours, the state TV has removed the black sign of mourning and has replaced it with the Iranian flag. And [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has appointed Admiral Sayyari, a person that most Iranians love and respect, as the new chief of the joint command, the highest military position in Iran after Khamenei. He replaces [Mohammad] Bagheri [the head of the armed forces, who was killed].”

President Donald Trump, who in his first term withdrew from a nuclear agreement that significantly constrained Iran’s nuclear program, posted on social media an ultimatum to Iran to make a new deal now before “nothing is left.” However, Iran has already said that it would not attend a sixth round of talks with the U.S., scheduled for Sunday in Oman.

U.S. insistence that Iran give up all enrichment of uranium under a new nuclear agreement has proven to be a dealbreaker. Iran has historically refused to do this, and it seems increasingly unlikely that it will capitulate now. [Continue reading…]