Orysia Lutsevych writes:

Hope can lift the spirit, but it’s not a good strategy. Trump’s second term has torpedoed the world order, in a manner that is especially dangerous for Ukraine and the rest of Europe. Three factors make the diplomatic efforts to defend Europe and achieve a good outcome in Ukraine precarious.

First, the disturbing alignment in worldview between the White House and the Kremlin. Both Trump and Putin believe the world is a superpowers’ playground, where the powerful do what they choose, and the smaller do what they must. Power is expressed as coercion and military might. Their geopolitical agendas can be achieved at the expense of other nations and territories, be they Ukraine or Greenland, in violation of the UN charter.

Trump has already validated Putin’s fabricated narrative that the war was provoked by the west and Ukraine is a culprit. In opposition to the free world, it has voted with Russia, North Korea and Belarus three times on various UN resolutions concerning the war. In March, the US Department of Justice pulled out of the international body investigating the Russian crime of aggression in Ukraine.

Second, Trump’s erratic decision-making makes it hard for Ukraine’s European allies to work on a coordinated plan of their own. The feeling is that Trump will pursue not what is good for peace and stability, but whatever the last person he spoke to told him. One former business associate recalls his fear of strategies being upset by the last thing Trump would hear from the doorman operating an elevator.

It is positive that Zelenskyy and other large European state leaders, Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, were able to speak with Trump in the Vatican. Their main message was likely “do not trust Putin when he says he is interested in peace, while he keeps waging war”. In recent weeks Ukraine’s top general confirmed that a new Russian offensive near Kharkiv and Sumy had begun. Ukraine has insisted on a total, unconditional ceasefire for any serious talks to begin.

And it seems that Vatican diplomacy had at least some temporary effect. On Saturday, Trump publicly doubted Putin’s intentions and threatened Russia with secondary sanctions if there is no deal. The last time he mentioned sanctioning Russia was in January, but no action followed.

But what if Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, just back from his fourth visit to Moscow, produces the “doorman effect” and persuades Trump to continue his policy of appeasement? Russia is trying to lure the US with business and geopolitical deals. The most personal project is the 150-storey Trump Tower in the centre of Moscow. The Kremlin has managed to have some of its most outrageous narratives voiced in the White House. It may be just a matter of time before Trump agrees to lift all US sanctions on Russia in order to do business together – and push Europe to follow suit.

This brings us to the third and final reason to distrust Trumpian diplomacy: the American president loves to exercise power for the sake of it, not to engage in policymaking with clear strategic outcomes. [Continue reading…]