Jacob Kornbluh writes:

[Senior war cabinet minister Benny] Gantz’s departure will heighten U.S. and international pressure on Netanyahu.

“The government is losing the protective shield that Gantz provided,” said Dan Arbell, a scholar-in-residence at the Center for Israel Studies at American University. “It will put it in a position of being greatly scrutinized for missteps and miscalculations and increase the possibility of international actions.”

But it could also boost Netanyahu’s standing among his right-wing base.

The government still maintains a 64-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset ensuring its stability. It will only strengthen the position of far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich in negotiations over a hostage exchange deal and a possible ceasefire in Gaza.

Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are opposed to Israeli concessions that result in the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and that include a commitment to end the war. Saturday’s rescue mission boosted their stance that increasing military pressure on Hamas is the only way to secure the release of the hostages still held by Hamas.

The far-right ministers will likely also use their leverage to push for aggressive actions against the Palestinian Authority in the occupied West Bank, and demand a voice on the war cabinet.

Noga Tarnopolsky, an Israeli-based journalist covering the developments in the region, said one should expect the government to “take a sharp right turn” in the foreseeable future. “We are entering even more volatile days,” she said.

However, catering to their demands could further isolate Netanyahu on the world stage amid escalating tensions with Hezbollah and Iran, and could intensify the anti-government protests within Israel demanding his resignation. [Continue reading…]